Considered the industrial capital of Uttar Pradesh, Kanpur is headed for a “local vs. outsider” contest as sitting MP and Union Minister Sri Prakash Jaiswal faces senior BJP leader and former MP from Varanasi, Murli Manohar Joshi.
While Mr. Jaiswal, who has held the seat for three terms since 1999, has portrayed himself as the ‘local,’ Mr. Joshi is banking on the “anti-Congress and pro-Modi waves” to displace him. The lack of infrastructure and development such as the congested traffic, potholed roads, faltering small industries and appalling power situation have been cited by Mr Jaiswal’s opponents to debunk his claims of development in the city. Mr. Joshi has also targeted the Union Coal Minister over the coal scam.
Countering the attack, Mr. Jaiswal has dubbed Mr. Joshi a deserter. At a recent public meeting, Mr. Jaiswal told workers in Kanpur that Mr. Joshi had “no emotional attachment with the place and would desert it after wining just like he did in Nainital, Allahabad and Varanasi.”
Kanpur-based activist and businessman Nadeem Javed says, “Jaiswal is known to be available for the common man and is popular across groups.” Mr. Jaiswal’s chances have been strengthened as the SP is likely to be hurt by the Muzaffarnagar riots which could consolidate the Muslim vote for the Congress, says Mr. Javed.
He further points out that, “This is for the first time a well-known BJP face is fielded here. With the image of Modi looming large, Muslims consider the Congress the sole force to stop the BJP here,” he said.
While Mr. Jaiswal is pitted to retain his support among the Muslims and Vaishya trading community, his journey in Kanpur has never been smooth. In 2004, he beat Satyadev Pachauri (BJP) by a paltry 5628 votes and in 2009, he scraped past six-time BJP MLA Satish Mahana by 19,000 votes.
BJP heartburnA senior BJP functionary close to Lalji Tandon admits that Mr. Mahana would have been in a better position to defeat Mr. Jaiswal. “He (Mahana) is a local face and worked hard for the last five years,” said the leader.
Observers also contend that while the BJP will reap the benefits of Mr. Joshi’s appeal to the Brahmin community, which are in a good number in the constituency, his prospects could be hampered by internal opposition within the party.
Mr. Mahana is said to be “upset” at being denied a ticket and his campaign for Mr Joshi, sources say, is “half-hearted.” Mr. Mahana, a Punjabi, is considered popular even among Muslims. Mr. Joshi has been left red-faced by slogans such as “ Modi Jaroori hai, Joshi toh Majboori hai ” (Modi is a must, Joshi is a compulsion.)
Mr. Mahana however, dismissed the idea that he wasn't campaigning for Mr. Joshi.
Observers believe that the strong RSS background presence in the City would eventually compel local BJP leaders to rally behind Mr. Joshi. Of the five legislators in Kanpur, three belong to the BJP as does the Mayor.
Other candidates in the fray are the SP's Surendra Mohan Agarwal, a business leader and a trusted aide of Mulayam Singh. He has had two failed attempts at the seat, finishing second in 1998.
Mr. Agarwal has argued that “since the SP is in power in the State, he was in the best position to ensure development in Kanpur.” His supporters have also attacked Mr. Joshi for his outsider tag. Mr. Agarwal is banking on the support of Muslims, Vaishyas and Yadavs. Backward classes make up 10 per cent of the electorate while Vaishyas are slightly less. The 18 per cent Muslim vote could be further divided with Salim Ahmed of the BSP laying claim to the 28 per cent Dalit votes and AAP also having fielded a Muslim, Mehmood Hussain.
SP’s loss of Muslim votes post-Muzaffarnagar may consolidate for the Congress.
