The decision of the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha election on its own is likely to dent the prospects of the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance in Maharashtra, according to political observers.
The ruling Mahayuti — comprising the BJP, the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena — will have an edge in constituencies where the VBA has a significant vote share, said Dr. Prakash Pawar, political analyst and professor at Shivaji University, Kolhapur. “Had the VBA been part of the MVA, the Opposition bloc would have emerged as a formidable force as consolidation of votes would have posed a tough challenge to the BJP-led NDA,” he said.
Led by Prakash Ambedkar, grandson of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, the VBA’s vote base comprises backward class communities, Scheduled Tribes, Dalits, and Muslims. Formed in 2018, the party had contested its maiden general election in 2019. Though none of its 47 candidates emerged victorious, it garnered 6.99% of the votes polled.
In the Assembly election the same year, it contested 236 of the 288 seats and cornered 5.50% of the votes. The party contested both these polls in alliance with the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).
‘Division of votes’
A VBA leader, on condition of anonymity, admitted that the party’s decision to contest the election independently will “certainly divide the votes cast in favour of the Opposition”.
He added that the party’s seat-sharing talks with the MVA allies had failed “because we were offered those seats where the MVA partners did not have any presence on the ground, which meant we were losing in those seats”.
“We do not want to be treated just as a vote bank to let the bigger parties win elections and save their respective business interests. By going solo, we are fine with whatever the election outcome is,” said another VBA leader.
On the other hand, the MVA anticipates a lesser vote share for the VBA in the election owing to the lack of an alliance with its former partner, the AIMIM. “They will not garner more than 3% of the votes in Maharashtra. In 2019, the VBA-AIMIM alliance had resulted in eight seats going in the BJP’s favour,” said a Congress leader.
Yet, the leader conceded that “their solo presence will still be a dent in some way”. “After all, every vote and every percentage of vote share matters in the election,” he said.
