It is raining promises in the unusually hot summer of April in Kerala as campaigning for the Lok Sabha election has reached a crescendo.
The United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the CPI(M) — arch rivals in Kerala but allies in the INDIA bloc elsewhere, including fallen Communist citadels West Bengal and Tripura — promise to restore secularism, democratic values and federal culture while the hard sell for the BJP is ‘Modi’s guarantee’.
Having hit its nadir in the 2021 Assembly election after a stellar show in the 2019 Lok Sabha election riding on the ‘Sabarimala sentiments’ wave and the ‘Rahul for PM’ slogan, the UDF has fielded most of its sitting MPs for another term. After the Kerala Congress (Mani) [KC(M)], which won the Kottayam seat on UDF ticket switched sides to the Left in 2020, the UDF grouping has 18 of the 20 seats right now.
The LDF, meanwhile, is not treating its ally in the INDIA bloc with kid gloves as it has put up strong candidates in all constituencies, including Wayanad, where senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi now has a formidable opponent in the CPI’s Annie Raja. The Left is unsparing in its criticism of the Congress for toeing a ‘soft Hindutva’ line, which it says has catalysed defection of Congress leaders to the BJP.
Anti-incumbency against the Left coalition, which has been in power for an unprecedented second consecutive term in the State, is what the UDF is seeking to cash in on, other than the slew of allegations of financial misappropriation against the top echelons of the CPI(M). The Left parries these ‘politically motivated’ charges by questioning the probity of central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and the Income Tax department. The Congress is playing into the hands of the BJP, which is desperate to open its account in the Lok Sabha from Kerala, it argues.
Rising vote share
The BJP campaign, as elsewhere, is spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Four of its candidates have a history of having been with the Congress. The BJP, which is in alliance with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) to sway a chunk of Ezhava community votes, has lately been seen as aggressively wooing the Christian community. The Catholic church allowed itself to be leveraged by the BJP when a unit of the Syro Malabar Church screened The Kerala Story, a propaganda film raising the bogey of ‘love jihad’. With its vote share having risen to 15.2% in 2019, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – whose candidate Kummanam Rajasekharan came second in Thiruvananthapuram constituency – has been able to make it a triangular fight in Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur seats.
But the UDF and the LDF have resolved to ensure that the NDA continues to draw a blank in the State. Fighting the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is a priority for both, and the Congress hopes to reap the benefits of its long-term partnership with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which is seeking to retain the Ponnani and Malappuram seats, in other constituencies as well.
CAA and other issues
The LDF has been more articulate in its opposition to the CAA. It counts the support of KC(M) as a means to make inroads into the Christian community in central Kerala region. Regional issues such as the increasing incidence of human-animal conflict in most districts and the tight financial situation of the State government are topics of discussion, along with national issues such as the use of Central agencies as a political tool and the fall in family incomes.
Campaigning has slid into personal attacks and slander in at least a few constituencies witnessing a close fight, such as Vadakara, where former Health Minister and LDF candidate K.K. Shailaja has filed complaints with the police and the Election Commission (EC) against cyberbullying and fake propaganda while Shafi Parambil, the UDF candidate, has appealed for deployment of Central forces and video surveillance of polling booths.
With no evident wave favouring any political formation or alliance, nobody is ready to take any chances.
