The BJP’s regional allies have more at stake in the third and final phase of the Lok Sabha election in Assam with the focus on reclaiming the ‘parliamentary space’ for representatives of indigenous or majority communities, believed to have been made easier by the 2023 delimitation.
Covering four constituencies – Barpeta, Dhubri, Guwahati, and Kokrajhar – in central and western Assam, this phase will also see the Congress pitted against more than one of its 15 partners in the United Opposition Forum, Assam (UOFA) apart from rivals in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The phase is headlined by Dhubri, which Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, the chief of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) seeks to retain for the fourth straight time. Bengali-origin Muslims constitute more than 70% of the voters in the constituency bordering Bangladesh, often used as a metaphor by indigenous groups to highlight the touchy issue of “illegal immigration” in Assam.
Mr. Ajmal, whose family is known for a global perfume business, penetrated this erstwhile Congress bastion in 2009, four years after forming the AIUDF as a challenge to the UPA government for failing to prevent the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act from being scrapped. The Act was seen as a shield against the harassment of Muslims in the name of the detection and deportation of foreigners.
Mr. Ajmal, 68, consolidated the AIUDF hold over the last three elections but 2024 is likely to be his toughest test as he faces former Assam Minister and MLA Rakibul Hussain of the Congress and Zabed Islam of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), one of the two allies of the BJP. The other is the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL).
While Mr. Hussain is confident of unfurling the Congress flag again in Dhubri after 15 years, the AGP is banking on the possible division of votes between the AIUDF and the Congress to win the seat for the first time. Among the other 10 candidates in the fray in Dhubri is Amzad Ali of the Republican Party of India (Athawale).
The AGP, though, is surer of the Barpeta seat that underwent a demographic shift after the 2023 delimitation. Muslim-dominated Assembly segments were hived off from Barpeta and added to Dhubri while Hindu-dominated segments were added from adjoining parliamentary constituencies. “We fulfilled the promise of giving the AGP a winnable seat,” Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said a few days ago.
The AGP has had a parliamentary drought since Joseph Toppo won the Sonitpur (now Tezpur) seat in 2009. The chances of the party’s Barpeta candidate and former Minister Phani Bhushan Choudhury to fill the void are said to be high because of a likely split in the anti-NDA votes among three UOFA candidates – Deep Bayan of Congress, Manoranjan Talukdar of CPI(M), and Abul Kalam Azad of Trinamool Congress. The constituency has a total of 14 candidates, including Samej Uddin of the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which allied with both the BJP and the Congress but is now neutral.
The NDA has been desperate to win Barpeta, which houses one of the most revered Vaishnav monasteries, where the last non-Muslim Assamese MP was Uddhab Barman of the CPI(M) in 1996.
The UOFA has a similar problem in the Kokrajhar seat reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. Here, Congress candidate Garjan Mashahary faces Gauri Sankar Sarania of the Trinamool apart from Joyanta Basumatary of the UPPL, Kampa Borgoyari of the BPF, and Binita Deka of the Gana Suraksha Party (GSP).
Kokrajhar is the nerve centre of the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) where the Bodos – the largest plains tribe in the northeast – constitute about 35% of the population. The area has been witness to conflicts between the Bodos and at least 19 non-Bodo communities, who largely helped incumbent Naba Kumar Sarania of the GSP win the seat in 2014 and 2019.
Mr. Sarania’s candidature was rejected this time after the Gauhati High Court found his ST certificate to be invalid. “I have been a victim of a political conspiracy but our candidate, Binita Deka will be a force to reckon with,” he said.
The absence of Mr. Sarania is expected to improve the chances of a Bodo candidate being elected from the Kokrajhar seat after 10 years. Mr. Basumatary, an MLA, believes the supporters of the UPPL and the BJP will help him get a Lok Sabha berth.
The BPF, on the other hand, is banking on the ‘misrule’ and ‘anti-minority face’ of the UPPL to spring a surprise. Kokrajhar has a total of 12 candidates in the fray.
Guwahati has the fewest candidates – eight – among the four third-phase seats. The constituency is set to witness a straight fight between Bijuli Kalita Medhi of the BJP and Mira Borthakur Goswami of the Congress, thus ensuring a woman represents it for the fourth straight term. The constituency, named after the largest urban centre in the northeast, is currently represented by Queen Oja of the BJP.
