Pre-poll survey: State-wise popularity trends point to a close election

Satisfaction levels with the Modi regime, though, have improved in the last year

59% of the respondents reported being satisfied with the Central government’s performance

A total of 59% of the respondents in the CSDS-Lokniti-The Hindu-Tiranga TV-Dainik Bhaskar Pre-Poll Survey reported being satisfied with the Central government’s performance, with 35% registering dissatisfaction. This 24 percentage point net satisfaction with the government marked a definite increase from its popularity numbers last year when the net satisfaction had dropped to zero (46% satisfied, 47% dissatisfied).

After having dipped in 2018, satisfaction with the NDA government is now almost back to post-demonetization high

	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	May 2018 (%)	January 2018 (%)	May 2017 (%
Satisfied with NDA government	59	47	51	64
Dissatisfied with NDA government	35	47	40	27
No response	6	6	9	9

 

Complete dissatisfaction with the government is lower than complete satisfaction; a year ago this was not the case

	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	May 2018 (%)
Fully satisfied with NDA government	24	16
Somewhat satisfied with NDA government	35	31
Somewhat dissatisfied with NDA government	15	15
Fully dissatisfied with NDA government	20	32
No response	6	6

 

Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre over the last five years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied).

But when it came to the question of giving the government a second chance, the numbers were much closer — 46% for doing so, and 36% against. A comparison with the 2009 election is merited here — in May 2009, net satisfaction with the Manmohan Singh-led government was as high as 43 points (64% were satisfied and 21% dissatisfied). With that satisfaction rating, the Congress and its allies managed to win 262 seats, falling 10 short of majority. This suggests that the 2019 election will not be a cakewalk for the NDA government.

Anti-incumbency sentiment has weakened in last one year

	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	MOTN May 2018 (%)
Modi govt. should get another chance	46	39
Modi government should not get another chance	36	47
No response	18	14

Question asked: Should the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre get another chance after the coming Lok Sabha election?

Satisfaction with NDA government much higher than what it was with UPA-2 in 2014 but it is lower than satisfaction with UPA-1

	NDA 2019 (%)	UPA-II 2014 (%)	UPA-1 2009 (%)
Satisfied with government	59	46	64
Dissatisfied with government	35	44	21
No response	6	10	15

 

Two-fifths see the NDA government as being better than the previous UPA government

	NDA 2019 (%)
NDA government is better	38
UPA government was better	27
Both were equally good	11
Neither was good	11
No response	13

Question asked: If we compare the present BJP-led NDA government at the Centre with the earlier Congress-led UPA government, which one of the two has been better in your opinion?

Satisfaction notwithstanding, voters are not happy with specific details of the government’s performance. The assessment of the government on corruption, price rise and employment opportunities is not very positive. It would, therefore, be interesting to see if voters rely more on their general sense of satisfaction or on a more nuanced sense on performance in key areas.

Voters’ assessment of Modi government’s performance on different parameters

	Increased (%)	Decreased (%)	Remained same (%)	No response (%)
Gap between Rich and Poor	43	31	18	8
India’s image in the world	48	20	18	14
Corruption	42	36	15	7
Employment opportunities	25	46	21	8
Prices of essential commodities	61	19	14	6
Welfare programmes for the poor	31	32	25	12
Harmony between communities	23	31	28	18

 

Question asked: Now I will ask you about some important issues. Please tell me about each whether these have increased or decreased during the last 5 years of BJP-NDA’s rule at the Centre?

Moreover, the question is — will the NDA be able to reap electoral dividends across the country from the fairly high overall satisfaction with its performance. It may help to look at the States to answer this question. We find that the 59% satisfaction with the NDA recorded by the survey is not evenly spread across the 19 surveyed States with some States reporting very high satisfaction levels and some abysmally low.

Barring Karnataka, all the southern States recorded a negative net satisfaction with the Central government’s performance. In Andhra Pradesh it is -5, in Telangana, -7, and in Tamil Nadu and Kerala -39. Moreover, in two of these states – Telangana and Kerala - voters were found to be far more satisfied with the state government’s performance than the central government’s performance in net terms.

In fact we notice this pattern/trend in 10 of the 19 States where the survey was conducted. In Punjab for instance, the net satisfaction with the Modi government was -29 whereas net satisfaction with the Congress-led state government was found to be +17. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, which elected Congress governments just recently, we notice a similar pattern.

Even as the Modi government is highly popular in the two states, the State governments seem to be even more popular. Net satisfaction with the BJD government in Odisha and the Trinamool government in West Bengal was also found to be far higher than the net satisfaction with the Modi government’s performance in these States. This is a national election no doubt, but the higher popularity of State governments vis-à-vis the Central government is not going to make matters easy for the BJP. The survey also found that voters in Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are also likely to give preference to the performance of their State government while casting their vote in the Lok Sabha election than the performance of the Central government. In many other States, even as voters are more likely to give importance to the Central government’s work, there is a high proportion that will take a final decision after taking both the governments’ work into account.

In 10 of 19 States where survey was conducted, net satisfaction with the State government is greater than satisfaction with Central government

	Net Satisfaction with NDA government (% points)	Net Satisfaction with State government (% points)
Andhra Pradesh	-5	-11
Assam	30	32
Bihar	43	38
Chhattisgarh	53	80
Delhi	27	54
Gujarat	49	49
Haryana	58	55
Jharkhand	6	3
Karnataka	40	47
Kerala	-39	40
Madhya Pradesh	26	45
Maharashtra	37	23
Odisha	73	84
Punjab	-29	17
Rajasthan	43	36
Tamil Nadu	-39	-41
Telangana	-7	62
Uttar Pradesh	33	22
West Bengal	14	22

Net satisfaction is proportion of those satisfied minus proportion of those dissatisfied

Local vs national

The BJP faces another problem. Even as the survey found that in all the currently NDA governed states, voters are satisfied with both the state and the central governments’ performance, there are some States where they do not seem to be much satisfied with the performance of their sitting BJP MPs. Among the sampled constituencies in Bihar, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh we found satisfaction levels with BJP Mps registering just borderline positive numbers. Yet among almost all NDA-governed states, the voters are more likely to vote on the basis of the party and the PM candidate, rather than their local candidate. Only Maharashtra stands out where the local candidate matters as much as the party for the voter.

In most States, voters will vote looking at Central government’s performance while voting than the State government’s performance

	Performance of Central government will matter more while voting (%)	Performance of State government will matter more while voting (%)	Both (%)
Andhra Pradesh	12	35	40
Assam	32	7	39
Bihar	40	11	45
Chhattisgarh	31	23	27
Delhi	63	20	15
Gujarat	23	18	35
Haryana	19	6	53
Jharkhand	32	16	41
Karnataka	38	23	33
Kerala	20	12	30
Madhya Pradesh	28	19	37
Maharashtra	20	10	58
Odisha	9	15	53
Punjab	20	7	62
Rajasthan	22	31	36
Tamil Nadu	25	22	33
Telangana	5	39	42
Uttar Pradesh	34	12	37
West Bengal	38	20	17

The rest said neither or gave no response

Another striking finding comes from Chhattisgarh where in the 3 sampled constituencies we found high satisfaction levels with the sitting MPs which is higher than the satisfaction with the NDA government. Could the BJP have therefore erred in dropping all its sitting MPs?

Net satisfaction with BJP MPs was found to be extremely low in Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and UP; very high in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka

Whose performance will be considered while voting in the Lok Sabha election	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	March 2014 (%)
Bihar	43	-10
Delhi	27	2
Madhya Pradesh	26	8
Maharashtra	37	1
Uttar Pradesh	33	5
Chhattisgarh	53	65
Karnataka	40	89

Net satisfaction is proportion of satisfaction minus proportion of those dissatisfied

While the BJP would want the election to be fought on Prime Minister Modi’s image, that strategy may have to encounter entrenched State-level factors.

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OTHER FINDINGS

Satisfaction with Modi government continues to be highest in cities and lowest in small towns; in cities two thirds are satisfied now as opposed to half a year ago

	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	MOTN May 2018 (%)
	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
Villages	58	34	48	46
Towns	54	41	42	52
Cities	66	30	50	46

 

Young voters are slightly more satisfied with the government than the elderly

Age group	Satisfied (%)	Dissatisfied (%)
18-25 years	60	35
26-35	63	34
36-45	58	37
46-55	57	36
56+	54	34

 

In 2014, over half the voters had wanted the government out, now nearly half want the NDA to be back

	2019 NDA govt. (%)	2014 UPA govt. (%)
Govt. should get another chance	46	25
Govt. should not get another chance	36	53
No response	18	22

 

Question asked: Should the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre get another chance after the coming Lok Sabha election?

 

For half the respondents Acche Din seem to have arrived again

	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	May 2018 (%)	January 2018 (%)	May 2017 (%)
Modi has succeeded in bringing Achhe Din	51	42	41	63
Modi has failed in bringing Achhe Din	39	52	50	27
No response	10	6	9	10

 

Question asked: During the 2014 Lok Sabha election campaign, Narendra Modi had promised to bring ‘acchhe din’. After ___ years of Modi’s government, do you think Modi has succeeded or failed in bringing ‘acchhe din’?

People slightly more likely to consider Centre’s performance this time compared to 2014

Whose performance will be considered while voting in the Lok Sabha election	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	March 2014 (%
State government	17	26
Central government	28	24
Both	39	26
Neither/Other	4	6
No response	12	18

 

Satisfaction with BJP MPs is the same as satisfaction with the Modi government

	%
Satisfaction with BJP MPs*	60
Dissatisfaction with BJP MPs*	36
Satisfaction with Modi government	59
Dissatisfaction with Modi government	35

*in surveyed seats

Dissatisfaction with performance of sitting MPs of Congress’ allies and BJP’s allies the greatest; dissatisfaction with BJP MPs higher than dissatisfaction with Cong MPs

 

	Fully satisfied (%)	Somewhat satisfied (%)	Somewhat dissatisfied (%)	Fully dissatisfied (%)	No response (%
Congress MPs	34	40	13	7	6
Congress allies MPs	12	39	24	24	1
BJP MPs	28	32	19	17	5
BJP allies MPs	25	30	13	28	4
BSP+ MPs	40	37	16	6	1
Left MPs	30	51	10	1	9
Others	24	31	14	21	11

 

Net satisfaction with BJP MPs was found to be extremely low in Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and UP; very high in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka

Whose performance will be considered while voting in the Lok Sabha election	Pre-poll 2019 (%)	March 2014 (%)
Bihar	43	-10
Delhi	27	2
Madhya Pradesh	26	8
Maharashtra	37	1
Uttar Pradesh	33	5
Chhattisgarh	53	65
Karnataka	40	89

Net satisfaction is proportion of satisfaction minus proportion of those dissatisfied

Note of caution here: Net satisfaction of BJP MPs is only for those seats that fell in our sample – in Chhattisgarh there were 3 such seats, in Karnataka 3, Maharashtra 6, Madhya Pradesh 4, Delhi 3, Bihar 4 and Uttar Pradesh 13.

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Lokniti-CSDS National Election Study Pre Poll 2019

Methodology

As part of its National Election Study, Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, conducted a Pre-Poll Survey between March 24th and March 31st, 2019 among 10,010 respondents spread across 19 States of India - Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The survey was conducted in 101 Assembly Constituencies (ACs) spread across 101 Parliamentary Constituencies (PCs). The total sample size targeted was 10,100 with an AC/PC-wise target of 100 interviews. In order to decide the number of PCs to be sampled in each of the 19 States, we first gave special weightage to the small States with 14 seats or less in order to achieve a decent sample of 300 from these States. Thereafter, the number of PCs to be sampled in the remaining medium and large States was determined based on the proportion of their electorate in the total electorate of the remaining States. The resultant target sample of each State was then adjusted to the nearest 100.

The sampling design adopted was multi-stage random sampling. This procedure ensures that the selected sample is fully representative of the cross-section of voters in the country. The PCs where the survey was conducted were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size method (adjusting the probability of choosing a particular constituency according to the size of its electorate). Then, one AC was selected from within each sampled PC using the PPS method again. Thereafter, four polling stations were selected from within each of the sampled ACs using the systematic random sampling method. Finally, 38 respondents were randomly selected using the systematic method from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling stations. Of these 38, we set a target of 25 interviews per polling station.

Once we identified our sample among the electorate, trained field investigators or FIs (a training workshop for them was conducted in each State) were sent to meet them. They were asked to interview only those whose names had been sampled. However, at some locations the non-availability of sampled respondents or difficulty in finding households necessitated replacements/substitutions. Our investigators sat down in the homes of people and asked them a detailed set of questions which could take up to 30 minutes. The questionnaire we presented to our sample of voters was designed in the language mainly spoken in the respondents’ State. In Gujarat in Gujarati, in Kerala in Malayalam, etc. Each PC/AC was covered by a team of two FIs, except Tamil Nadu where a team of four FIs was sent to each AC due to late start of fieldwork. A total 216 field investigators conducted the survey at 404 locations.

The achieved national sample is broadly representative of India’s population, in terms of the country's general demographic profile. Data of each State has been weighted by gender, locality, caste group and religion as per Census 2011 percentages.

Profile of the achieved national sample

	Raw share in the achieved survey sample (%)	Actual share in total population of 19 States as per Census 2011 (%)	Actual share in India’s total population as per Census 2011 (%)
Women	46	49	49
Urban	34	31	31
SC	19	17	17
ST	10	8	9
Muslim	13	14	14
Christian	2	2	2
Sikh	3	2	2

Note: Figures have been round off.

The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu and Srinivas Rao Gangiredla (Andhra Pradesh), Dhruba Pratim Sharma and Nurul Hassan (Assam), Rakesh Ranjan (Bihar), Lakhan Choudhary (Chhattisgarh), Biswajit Mohanty and (Delhi), Bhanu Parmar (Gujarat), Kushal Pal and Anita Agarwal (Haryana), Harishwar Dayal and Amit Kumar (Jharkhand), Veenadevi and K L Nagesh (Karnataka), Sajad Ibrahim and Rincy Mathew (Kerala), Yatindra Singh Sisodia and Ashish Bhatt (Madhya Pradesh), Nitin Birmal (Maharashtra), Gyanaranjan Swain and Balaram Pradhan (Odisha), Ashutosh Kumar and Hardeep Kaur (Punjab), Sanjay Lodha and Nidhi Seth (Rajasthan), P Ramajayam (Tamil Nadu), Vageeshan Harathi and Ramya C. (Telangana), Mirza Asmer Beg, Shashikant Pandey and Sudhir Khare (Uttar Pradesh), and Suprio Basu and Jyotiprasad Chatterjee (West Bengal).

The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti, CSDS. The team included Amrit Negi, Amrit Pandey, Anurag Jain, Dhananjay Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, Manjesh Rana, Sakshi Khemani, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The survey was directed by Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti..