Manu Sakya and Chandrabhan Singh live over 300 km apart. While Mr. Sakya repairs electronics in the Eidgah locality of Agra, Mr. Singh runs a small grocery store in Mohanlalganj, the rural Lok Sabha constituency in Lucknow. Mr. Singh is an upper caste Thakur, while Mr. Sakya is a Kori, a Dalit caste traditionally associated with weaving.
But when it comes to making an electoral choice this summer, the two men are thinking along similar lines, converging on one factor, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is still the main vote catcher for the BJP in this crucial State.
Mr. Modi is compensating for the anti-incumbency factor faced by the local BJP MPs. In Mr. Singh’s case, it is Kaushal Kishore, who has been fielded again. “After winning, not once did he visit us. But since my vote is in favour of Modi ji , I will vote for Kaushal,” Mr. Singh says.
Listing the PM-KISAN scheme, new toilets and power and gas connections, Mr. Singh says the work done in the past five years has been unprecedented.
In Agra, Mr. Sakya rates poorly the tenure of Ram Shankar Katheira, MP, who has been shifted to Etawah this year, and is equally angry with the local BJP MLA, Giriraj Dharmesh.
He lists spiralling power bills, the GST and demonetisation as reasons that pushed back the informal economy and is worried by unemployment rates. But even he wants to give Mr. Modi another chance, saying only he can bring a “better future for the country”, and lauds the PM for the Balakot air strike and bringing back the Indian Air Force pilot.
A similar sentiment is shared in a residential colony some distance away. Mahendra Kumar Prajapati and his neighbours say despite submitting several applications to the MP over the past five years, nothing has been done about the overflowing drains and broken paths in their colony, mostly housing OBC and Dalits.
But the anti-incumbency factor doesn’t stick on Mr. Modi. “He is good and fit to be PM again. Those at the lower level are not doing their duties properly,” Mr. Prajapati says.
As one travels west from Lucknow, through Firozabad, Agra, Mathura and beyond, the consolidation of the votes of the SP-BSP-RLD is perceptible, posing a huge challenge for the BJP.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the fascination for Mr. Modi has reduced since then, as more critical voices appear especially among farmers and jobless youth.
But the PM is still the single biggest attraction for BJP voters, who were found overlooking anti-incumbency against the sitting MPs and the State government.
This is clearest in Mathura, where the BJP’s Hema Malini faces heavy anti-incumbency.
While a fair number of voters here, particularly Jats and Thakurs, are seen split between the BJP and the RLD, which has fielded a Thakur, those still supporting the BJP are mostly doing so due to Mr. Modi’s appeal.
Mandhata Singh, a Thakur teacher, is angry with the Yogi Adityanath government for stopping the honorarium for teachers started under the SP rule. But he is willing to digest that for “national interest”.
“Modi has raised India’s stature at the global level. Under him, we are not indebted to any country,” he says. He is voting for Ms. Malini, a Jat, despite the RLD fielding a prominent Thakur, Narendra Singh.
Bachu Singh, a Jat farmer who mostly grows potatoes and wheat, admits that the promises made by the Modi government have not been fulfilled.
He scoffs at the claims of farmers’ income being doubled and points out that the costs of farming and diesel prices have shot up while selling the crops has become more difficult than before. A 45-kg bag of urea is now sold at the price of a 50-kg bag, he rues.
Despite all this, Mr. Bachu, who associates himself with the RSS, says he will vote for Mr. Modi. “I am a Hindu and my vote is for the Hindutvavadi party,” he says.
