In many ways this Lok Sabha election is exceptional for Himachal Pradesh. It’s the first time that two of its titans — Congress’ six-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh and Bharatiya Janata Party’s two-time Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal are out of the battlefield.
It is also an election where the BJP, being the ruling party in both the Centre and State, is facing anti-incumbency. The Congress, meanwhile, is plagued with severe in-fighting. Virbhadhra Singh is sulking, after not getting his way in the selection of candidates. Though he is actively campaigning for the party, many of his comments have put his party in a spot.
Simmering in-fighting
Mr. Singh campaigned for Mandi candidate Ashray Sharma, grandson of his bête noire Pandit Sukhram. The two hugged and made up but the bitterness often surfaces. During a rally for Mr. Sharma, Mr. Singh openly criticised Mr. Sukhram for the political opportunism of his shifting loyalties between the Congress and the BJP.
None of the party bigwigs — Sukhwinder Singh (Sukku), Sudhir Sharma, G.S. Bali or Asha Kumari — are in the fray.
In-fighting is simmering in the BJP too, especially in the Hamirpur constituency, where Anurag Thakur, the BJP nominee, has to face not only his Congress opponent, but also his own disgruntled colleague Health Minister J.P. Nadda.
It was in 2014 that, for the first time, all the four seats in Himachal Pradesh went to the BJP. “The Himachal has always gone with the party that was in power in the State. But in 2014, while the Congress government under Virbhadhra Singh in power in the State, the voters chose BJP [candidates for Parliament],” Joginder Saklani, Assistant Professor in Political Science at the Himachal Pradesh University, said. He sees an edge for the BJP.
Congress fortress
The BJP had been making steady in-roads in the State in this Congress fortress. Till 1977, the Congress won all the four seats here. It was in 1989 that the BJP first made its mark by winning three seats.
The average Himachali voter does not open up easily and most of them show indifference to politics. But when it comes to their vote, they hold surprises up their sleeves. In 2014, they defeated the sitting Chief Minister’s wife Pratibha Singh from Mandi, and just three years later in the 2017 Assembly polls, they served defeat to the BJP’s stalwart Prem Kumar Dhumal at the hands of his own former aide Rajinder Rana. The State does not always follow the national narrative. In 1996, when the Congress was routed across the country, it won all four seats in the hill State. Many claim that Himachal Pradesh, because of its geographical attributes, is cut off from the mainland and thus throws up these surprises.
National narrative
But in 2019, with the social media wave, which includes messaging app WhatsApp, delivering every little detail of the campaign across the nation here, the national narrative is loudly echoing in these hill, too.
The conversation begins and ends with, “ Ghar main ghus ke maara ” (‘entering the house to deliver a beating’) referring to ‘surgical’ and air strikes in Balakot. The conversation then shifts to “ Puri duniya ne Modi ka sikka maan liya ” (‘the whole world respects Modi’). “The Balakot strike has changed the elections here, much like in the rest of the nation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looming large here as a prime factor in this election,” Mr. Saklani added.
Equally, one hears people questioning the BJP’s narrative of nothing having been done in the 70 years before Mr. Modi’s Prime Ministership.
Out of the four constituencies here, Mandi has seen the most intensive campaigning. Mr. Modi himself was here on Friday. The State machinery is over-active here because Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur is a legislator from the Seraj Assembly seat that falls under the Mandi Lok Sabha constituency. This election is a litmus test for him. If the BJP loses this election, then his position as Chief Minister becomes untenable.
Critical Hamirpur
The other seat critical for the BJP is Hamirpur. Here, former Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) chief Anurag Thakur is seeking re-election for the fourth time. His victory is essential to keep his father Prem Kumar Dhumal relevant in the State’s politics.
In Shimla, the BJP has dropped its two-time MP Virender Kashyap and fielded Suresh Kashyap instead, while the Congress has fielded Dhani Ram Shandil. Both candidates, who belong to the Koli community, covered under the Scheduled Caste category, are from the Defence services background. One is a retired Colonel of the Indian Army, while another is former senior Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO) of the Indian Air Force (IAF).
The Congress has fielded two-time MLA Pawan Kajal from the Kangra Lok Sabha constituency of Himachal Pradesh, while the BJP has picked State Minister Kishan Kapoor, after dropping veteran leader and former Chief Minister Shanta Kumar.
Mr. Kajal, 44, hails is an OBC (Other Backward Class), while Mr. Kapoor, the Food and Civil Supply Minister in the Jai Ram Thakur-led BJP government in the State, belongs to the semi-nomadic Gaddi tribe, having a sizeable population in Kangra and Chamba districts.
PM wants hat-trick
Mr. Modi, at a rally in Mandi on Friday, pleaded for a ‘hat-trick’ from Himachali voters: “ Aapne 2014 jeetaya , 2017 jeetaya , ab 2019 jeeta kar hat-trick karne ki baari hai. ” (‘You made us win in 2014, then again in the 2017 Assembly polls, now it’s time to score a hat-trick by making us win in 2019’).
Whether Himachal will is up in the hill air.
