Following up on former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s advice to make the Congress’ 2019 manifesto a talking point, the party has lined up over two dozen press conferences, seeking to steer the election narrative toward ‘bread and butter issues’. Head of the party’s Data Analytics team Praveen Chakravarty , who was closely involved in the drafting of the manifesto, dispels misgivings about implementing NYAY, saying India’s GDP is now large enough to absorb the costs
Is the Congress seeking to build an election narrative through its manifesto?
It is extraordinary the kind of reaction we have got. When was the last time a manifesto was discussed and debated so widely before an election? Whether you support it or criticise it, the fact that it is being discussed makes us feel grateful.
The BJP has called it a document that is ‘full of lies’...
We all know where the word jumla came from and in what context. I think the country has moved beyond rhetorical statements.
The Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY) or minimum income guarantee is the centrepiece of your manifesto. Several people, including economists, have questioned the schemes that promises transfer of ₹72,000 to five crore poorest households. And what happens to fiscal deficit?
Sure, I will answer all of this but let me tell you how it came about. The Congress president [Rahul Gandhi] told us that the poorest families are getting left behind and can we have a direct policy intervention. He said ‘Let’s find a solution’. That’s the origin of the idea.
In the Indian context, in 2017, this government’s own Chief Economic Advisor (Dr. Arvind Subramanian) talked about universal basic income. His proposal was that it would cost 1.5% to 2% of the GDP.
When we roll out NYAY, it would cost us 1.2% of the GDP. It will be about ₹3.6 lakh crore and our GDP today is ₹200 lakh crore. It is entirely doable. India today is ready and we have the fiscal space!
You have not prepared a concrete roadmap on how you will fund this scheme.
Look, we are not writing a Cabinet note for implementation or preparing a Budget document. We have very clearly said it is going to be a combination of tax revenues, new revenues and rationalisation of non-core expenditure.
Once we are in government, we have said very clearly that we will form an expert committee, start a pilot project and implement in phases.
Mr. Chidamabaram (former Union Finance Minister) keeps reminding all of us that these were exactly the same questions when NREGA was planned. Today, it is an astounding success.
Will this connect with the voters, especially after the Balakot strike following the Pulwama terror attack?
Ok, let me tell you that I do what are called panel surveys that include voters, sarpanches [village headmen], party workers, civil society members etc. Our sample size is about seven lakh people, covering every single Assembly constituency in as many as 7.6 lakh polling booths. Now, when I asked them will you vote for BJP post-Balakot strikes if you didn’t vote for them in 2014, a majority of them said ‘No’.
Most people said the strikes were good and we [India] should have hit Pakistan earlier but it will not change their electoral behaviour.
So what does the data tell you about seats. How many seats do you think the Congress could get?
At this stage, to predict how many seats we get will be a fool’s hazard. Look, data indicate that one-third of the voters decide who to vote in the week of voting.
I can only say that as of now, we will triple our seats [from the 2014 tally] and the BJP will halve their count.
