Only a few seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh voted consecutively in the last five Assembly elections or more for the party that went on to win the State.
Begun and Mandal in Rajasthan set the tone for 10 elections by voting for parties that triumphed at the State level. In Begun, the Indian National Congress won a narrow victory over BJP (1,661 votes) in the Assembly election 2018. In Mandal, a tight contest was on between the Congress and an independent candidate (margin: 8,065 votes).
Meanwhile, the party that won in Khargone in southern Madhya Pradesh has gone on to win the State in the last 12 elections. The Congress won the seat by a margin of 9,512 votes.
(The writer works for Gramener, a data science company.)