Data

Data | Delhi 2020 results: AAP holds fort but chinks in armour show

Illustration: Deepak Harichandan

Illustration: Deepak Harichandan  

While it continued to post dominant victories, AAP's margins have dropped compared to the 2015 poll. An analysis of the Assembly election results.

The Aam Aadmi Party continued its dominant run in Delhi by winning the Assembly election with a comfortable margin both in terms of seat and vote shares. While it continued to post dominant victories, the margins have dropped significantly in comparison to the 2015 poll.

Mapping the wins

The maps show winners in the 2020 and 2015 Assembly election. AAP's wins are shaded green, and the Bharatiya Janata Party's wins are indicated using saffron. While AAP maintained its dominance across Delhi, BJP increased its seat share in the eastern and north eastern parts of the national capital.

Dominance extended

image/svg+xml 2020 2015
 

Overcoming anti-incumbency

The ruling party managed to hold on to its vote base with only a marginal drop of 0.76% points. The Congress' vote  share decreased by around 5% points, while the BJP's increased by a similar margin.

Marginal decrease

image/svg+xml Assembly segments won/led Party 2015 2019 2020 AAP 67 0 62 BJP+ 3 65 8 INC+ 0 5 0 Vote share in % Party 2015 2019 2020 AAP 54.34 16.32 53.57 BJP+ 32.69 50.88 38.51 INC+ 9.65 20.28 4.26
 

Change in vote share

Despite AAP’s big win, its vote share decreased in a majority of seats, compared to 2015. Graph shows the increase or decrease in vote share of the AAP, the BJP and the Congress in 2020 compared to 2015 for all the 70 seats.

Seats where the AAP's vote share decreased

AAP's vote share decreased in 38 seats compared to the 2015 poll, with Karawal Nagar seeing the largest drop of 13.56 percentage points. Each pink-coloured circle corresponds to a constituency.

image/svg+xml -15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10 Karawal Nagar: -13.56% points Kirari : -11.89% points Kasturba Nagar -11.1% points AAP’s vote share decreased in 38 seats :
 

Seats where the AAP's vote share decreased

AAP's vote share decreased in 32 seats compared to 2015. The party gained the most in Mustafabad, where it saw an increase of 23.07 percentage points.

image/svg+xml 024681012141618202224 Mustafabad: +23.07 % points Matia Mahal: +16.73 % points AAP’s vote share increased in 32 seats
 

Seats where the BJP's vote share decreased

BJP's vote share decreased in only seven seats compared to the 2015 poll. The biggest drop came in Delhi Cantonment (-6.17 percentage points).

image/svg+xml -10.0-9.5-9.0-8.5-8.0-7.5-7.0-6.5-6.0-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0-3.5-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.0 Burari: -5.91 % points Delhi Cantt: -6.17% points BJP+’s vote share decreased in 7 seats
 

Seats where the BJP's vote share increased

BJP's vote share increased in a 63 seats, with the biggest gain coming in Najafgarh, where the party saw an increase of 21.48 percentage points compared to the 2015 poll.

image/svg+xml 012345678910111213141516171819202122 Najafgarh: +21.48% points Badarpur: +19.67% points BJP+’s vote share increased in 63 seats
 

Seats where the Congress' vote share decreased

The Congress' vote share decreased in a whopping 64 seats. The biggest drop came in Mustafabad, where the party's vote share dropped by 28.79 percentage points.

image/svg+xml -30-28-26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-20 Mustafabad: -28.79% points Mangolpuri: -26.12 % points INC+’s vote share decreased in 64 seats
 

Seats where the Congress' vote share increased

The Congress' vote share increased in only six seats. The biggest increase in vote share came in Kasturba Nagar, where it gained 10.01 percentage points.

image/svg+xml 0123456789101112 Kasturba Nagar: +10.01 points Gandhi Nagar: +4.73% points Delhi Cantt: +4.35% points INC+’s vote share increased in 6 seats

Narrower wins

2015 saw AAP winning many seats by a huge margin. In 2020, the margins have come down. Of the 61 seats the AAP managed to retain in 2020, in 41 the win margin decreased.

Table shows the overall split.

Changing equations

image/svg+xml Seat retained/ lost by parties Seats with increase in win margin Seats with decrease in win margin Retained by AAP 20 41 BJP to AAP 1 0 Retained by BJP 2 0 AAP to BJP 2 4

The chart plots the constituency-wise win margins (%) in 2020 and the change in win margin compared to 2015, in percentage points.

image/svg+xml 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Win margin in 2020 (%) Change in win margin compared to 2015 (% points) -30-25-20-15-10-5051015202530 In 45 of 70 seats win margin de - creased compared to 2015 In 25 of 70 seats win margin increased com - pared to 2015

Vote share ranges

While the AAP continued to secure a high vote %, its win margins were not so decisive as the BJP benefited from INC's drop in share of seats with a higher vote %.

Table shows the number of seats (in both 2015 and 2020) where the vote shares of the AAP, the BJP and the Congress were in particular vote share ranges. For example, in 45 seats, BJP had vote shares between 31% and 45%.

image/svg+xml Vote share ranges 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 0% to 15% 0 0 2 0 61 65 16% to 30% 0 0 21 10 8 5 31% to 45% 5 6 43 45 1 0 46% to 60% 54 50 4 15 0 0 >60% 11 14 0 0 0 0 AAP BJP+ INC+

Class-wise vote

The BJP continued to do well in seats where wealth level was higher. The AAP again achieved high vote % among the poorer sections.

Table shows the vote shares of the AAP, the BJP and the Congress in four class-wise categories of constituencies.

Class-wise splits were arrived by using property price values for wards in the Municipal Corporation. Based on the ranges of these values, the constituencies were bunched as "poorest", "poor" and "middle" and "rich". Property price data was provided by Thejesh G.N.

Class equations

image/svg+xml Class-wise split 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 Poorest 58.9 56.5 35.8 38.7 8.5 3.1 Poor 55.2 53.7 31.4 39.2 6.6 3.1 Middle 50.0 51.9 36.7 40.0 12.5 6.9 Rich 48.7 49.2 36.2 43.3 10.5 6.0 AAP % vote BJP+ % vote INC+ % vote

Data compiled by Vignesh Radhakrishnan, Sumant Sen, Naresh Singaravelu, Srravya C., Sayan Ghosh and Srinivasan Ramani

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Printable version | Feb 20, 2020 12:42:58 PM | https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-delhi-2020-results-aap-holds-fort-but-chinks-in-armour-show/article30799276.ece

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