Q4 GDP growth may throw up a positive surprise at 6.5%-7%

If overall growth hits about 7.8% in 2023-24, GDP would have risen in the range of 6.5%-6.8% during Q4

Updated - April 10, 2024 08:24 pm IST

Published - April 10, 2024 08:07 pm IST - NEW DELHI

indian currency and gdp word spelled out

indian currency and gdp word spelled out | Photo Credit: anita kumari

India’s GDP growth in the January to March 2024 quarter is likely to turn out to be higher than the 5.9% uptick penned in by the National Statistical Office (NSO), possibly in the range of 6.5% to 7%, which would translate into a positive surprise for the official 7.6% growth estimate for 2023-24.

In the first three quarters of last year, real GDP growth had averaged 8.2%. Although there is some growth deceleration visible in indicators like vehicle registrations and GST revenues, analysts reckon the loss in growth momentum in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023-24, from the surprise 8.4% GDP rise recorded in Q3, will not be as steep as the NSO anticipated.

“Although it is early to quantify the Q4 activity performance, a few ultra-high frequency indicators released so far point towards continuation of healthy momentum… We see an upside risk to NSO’s Q4 GDP growth estimate of 5.9%, which in turn would impart a 20 basis points upside to the full year GDP growth estimate of 7.6%,” QuantEco Research said on Wednesday. One basis point equals 0.01 percent.

Based on that upside, if overall growth hits about 7.8% in 2023-24, GDP would have risen in the range of 6.5%-6.8% during Q4.

“While indicators like petroleum consumption, motor vehicle registrations, and GST revenue collection point towards a mild deceleration in Q4, the momentum is similar to the one observed during Q1-Q3,” the firm’s economists said in the note titled ‘Optimism in ultra-high frequency signals of Q4 economic activity’.

“It is likely that real GVA and GDP growth will be around 6% and 7% respectively, in Q4, better than the NSO’s estimates of 5.4% and 5.9%, respectively,” said Motilal Oswal Financial Services’ research analysts Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladha in a report based on monthly economic activity trends.

GVA growth, based on the indicators tracked by the firm, remained strong in January at 8.2%, and February at 7.5%, while some metrics from March portray a mixed picture, they noted. In Q3, GVA or the gross value added in the economy, had slipped to 6.5%, and the NSO estimates full year GVA growth to be 6.9%.

0 / 0
Sign in to unlock member-only benefits!
  • Access 10 free stories every month
  • Save stories to read later
  • Access to comment on every story
  • Sign-up/manage your newsletter subscriptions with a single click
  • Get notified by email for early access to discounts & offers on our products
Sign in


Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.

We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.