Domestic rating agency India Ratings on Tuesday maintained a stable outlook on the banking sector for 2021-22 while it expects an increase in stressed assets in retail and MSME segments by end-March.
It estimates gross non-performing assets (GNPA) of the banking sector to be at 8.6% and stressed assets at 10.3% for fiscal 2021-22.
"We have maintained a stable outlook on the overall banking sector for the rest of FY22, supported by the continuing systemic support that has helped manage the system-wide COVID-19 linked stress," the rating agency said in its mid-year banks outlook released on Tuesday.
Banks will continue to strengthen their financials by raising capital and adding to provision buffers which have already seen a sharp increase in the last three to four years, it said.
The agency said its stable outlook on large private banks indicates their continued market share gains both in assets and liabilities, while competing intensely with public sector banks (PSBs). Most have strengthened their capital buffers and proactively managed their portfolio.
Outlook on PSBs takes into account continued government support through large capital infusions (₹ 2.8 lakh crore over FY18-FY21 and further ₹ 0.2 lakh crore provisioned for FY22), it said.
The agency has a negative outlook on five banks (about 6.5% of system deposits), driven primarily by weak capital buffers and continued pressure on franchise.
It estimates that the asset quality impact in the retail segment has been higher for private banks with a median rise of over 100% in gross NPAs over Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22 (about 45% for PSBs).
"Banks have also undertaken restructuring in retail assets (including home loans), which could have postponed an immediate increase in slippages. Overall stressed assets (GNPA + restructured) in the segment is expected to increase to 5.8 per cent by end-FY22," the report said.
It said the MSME sector has been under pressure with demonetisation, introduction of GST and RERA, slowing down of large corporates and now COVID-19.
However, the government has supported the segment by offering liquidity under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) and restructuring, it said adding that it expects that beginning Q3 FY22, a portion of such advances would start exiting moratoriums a part of which could slip.
GNPAs of MSMEs is expected to increase to 13.1% by end-FY22 from 9.9% in FY21. Stressed assets similarly would increase to 15.6% from 11.7%.
For corporate segment, the agency estimates GNPAs to increase to 10.2 % and stressed asset to increase to 11.3 %.
The rating agency has kept its FY22 credit growth estimates unchanged at 8.9% for FY22, supported by a pick-up in economic activity post Q1 FY22, higher government spending especially on infrastructure and a revival in demand for retail loans.
Last week, the agency had changed the outlook to improving from stable for retail non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies (HFCs) for the second half of FY22.
It said non-banks have adequate system liquidity (because of regulatory measures), sufficient capital buffers, stable margins due to low funding cost and on-balance sheet provisioning buffers.
These factors provide 'enough cushion to navigate the challenges that may emanate from a subdued operating environment leading to an increase in asset quality challenges due to the second covid wave impacting disbursements and collections for non-banks', it had said.
