This is a blog post from
A few days ago, good news greeted the Indian football team. India had jumped 31 places from its previous position of 132, and was now ranked 101st in the world . Currently, India shares this spot with three other countries — Nicaragua, Lithuania, and Estonia with a hair’s breadth of decimal points separating these countries. Curiously, it is ranked the 11th best Asian nation (note: Australia qualifies from the Asian contingent), ahead of regional heavyweights like Iraq, Oman, Jordan, Thailand, and North Korea. What is more, this is the highest ever that India has been ranked in two decades.
This hasn't been the only positive footballing story to emerge from India recently. Last year, I-league champions Bengaluru FC had made an impressive run to the finals of the AFC Cup, beating the defending champions Johor Darul Ta'zim F.C., only to lose 1-0 to Iraq’s Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya. TV and stadium viewership for the star-studded ISL saw a spike in its third season. Does this upturn represent an upward trajectory to the heady days of the 1950s and 1960s? The answer is complicated.
On the face of it, India has won 11 out of the 13 matches that it has faced since November 2015, with the defeats coming against Iran and Turkmenistan during the World cup qualifiers in March 2016. 12 of those matches accounted for World cup qualifiers, Asian cup qualifiers, SAFF championship, and an international friendly — with the unofficial friendly against Bhutan being the other game. Nevertheless, these results have contributed to India’s position in the FIFA rankings.
Understanding India’s ascent in the rankings would involve decoding FIFA’s procedure to rank the men’s teams . According to FIFA’s official webpage, a team’s points total over a four-year period is determined by adding the average number of points gained from matches played in the past 12-month period to the corresponding results from the period older than 12 months (but not more than four years of points in total). The “older” results carry lesser weightage. For the sake of comparision, ICC rankings have a four-year period as (updated in May); on the other hand, tennis has a rolling one-year window .
The Indian national football team did not play a single fixture between September 2016 and March 2017. During the time, it improved its ranking by not kicking a ball. A single result could have swung the ranking either way...
The number of points that can be amassed from a single game in turn depends on the result; there are multipliers for the importance of the match, ranking position of the opposition, and the confederation to which the teams belong to. The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the results obtained from the preceding three World Cup tournaments.
While the ranking points are calculated with good intentions, many teams have used ingenious ways to game the system. In 2015, Wales broke into the top-10 of the rankings — this represented a dizzying ascent for a nation that was ranked a lowly 117th in 2011 (not too far from India’s ranking). Their ascent in the four-year period was nothing short of stunning, but it was aided by some sleight of hand as well. For a seventeen-month period after their 2-0 loss against the Netherlands, they didn't play a single non-competitive fixture which could have cost them valuable ranking points.
Romania also avoided playing friendlies for 12 months prior to the World cup draw. Of course, both these nations were inherently strong at the time, for they performed admirably in competitive fixtures. But they couldn't have reached their respective heights without crunching the numbers to their advantage. Similarly, Switerzland crept up to seventh in the rankings and, having received a seeding in the 2014 World Cup draw, avoided the other top seeds in the group stage; the English media bemoaned a lack of strategic planning on their team’s part as they found themselves out of the top 8 groups — and potentially being paired with a “strong” footballing nation.
It must also be noted that similar gains have helped India too, inadvertently or not. The Indian national football team did not play a single fixture between September 2016 and March 2017. During the time, it improved its ranking by not kicking a ball . A single result could have swung the ranking either way, as noted by Sunil Chhetri...
Whether India does belong or not at this level will be duly tested in the months to come with crucial fixtures against Lebanon, Kyrgyzstan, and others. A loss could see India slipping in the rankings once again.
Beyond the cosmetic appearances of rankings, India would deeply benefit from setting its football structure right. India can take heart from the fact that Belgium, with only 34 professional clubs over two tiers, managed to become a top-tier nation by exporting footballing talent across Europe. Barring sporadic examples (like Gurpreet Singh Sandhu, Sunil Chhetri, Subrata Pal), Indian footballers have not found favour with any of the top European leagues.
Sure, the ISL has made waves recently and has captured the popular support from fans across the nation but it is ultimately a two-month long tournament. Besides, the nation’s top league competition (I-league) has lost some of its sheen with the ISL cannibalising some of the much-needed attention, and the pullout of Goan clubs has added only to the confusion. The merger between the I-league and the ISL does not seem to be happening anytime soon. Without a critical mass of quality players, a good league competition, and a consistent effort to promote the game at the grassroots, Indian football will not be able to move on from the ranking artefact. Who knows, the next set of fixtures in June might set the record straight.
