Physicist Stephen Hawking has worked out the optimal conditions for how England could win the football World Cup in Brazil, and unfortunately for Roy Hodgson’s side, victory looks unlikely.
After analysing data since the 1966 World Cup — the only time England has won — Hawking concluded that the heat, altitude and the distance from home could all be detrimental to England.
The author of a Brief History of Time also studied how to take the perfect penalty in a bid to help his team, noting: “As we say in science, England ‘couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo’.”
A 5-degree-celsius rise in temperature reduced England’s chance of winning by 59 per cent, according to Hawking, while it was twice as likely to win playing at 500 metres below sea level.
“Like all animals, the England team are creatures of habit,” he said. “Being closer to home reduces the negative impact of cultural differences and jetlag.
“We do better in temperate climates, at low altitudes with kick-off as close to the normal three o’clock as possible.”
England was also statistically more likely to win playing in its red strip, he said, perhaps because it led to it being seen as more aggressive and dominant.
“Contrary to tabloid opinion, the presence of WAGs (wives and girlfriends) is irrelevant,” he continued.
Playing 4-3-3 rather than 4-4-2 was also better for England, as well as a European referee, he said, explaining that England won 63 per cent of games with European referees as opposed to 38 per cent with referees from elsewhere.
“European referees are more sympathetic to the English game and less sympathetic to ballerinas like (Liverpool’s Uruguay forward Luis) Suarez,” said Hawking. Analysing the data on penalties, which were first introduced in the World Cup in 1978, Hawking said velocity was key.
“For this reason, get a run up of more than three steps,” he said. “Give it some welly. There is only a 58 per cent probability of scoring if your run up is three steps or less. Considerably less than the normal 87 per cent probability of scoring.”
There was no advantage to be being right or left-footed, he noted, but added that bald and fair-haired players were more likely to score than dark-haired players.
“Eighty-four per cent of penalties by fair-haired players went in, compared to 71 per cent for bald players and only 69 per cent for dark haired players,” he said.
“The reason for this is unclear. This will remain one of science's great mysteries.”
Though he said he would be cheering for England, Hawking, who was commissioned to carry out the study by bookmakers Paddy Power, said he was placing his money on Brazil.
“You would be a fool to overlook Brazil. Hosts have won over 30 per cent of the World Cups,” he said. — DPA
