When Luka Modrić scored Croatia’s second goal against Argentina, the kind of long-range stunner that Argentina's Lionel Messi is famous for, the camera cut from the ecstatic Croatians to the other end of the pitch where stood one of the most talked-about players of this World Cup. Hand on the hip, shoulders slumped, head down — Messi was a stock photo of a dejected man, and for good reason.
Argentina's failure to win against the tiny Iceland and, now, Croatia , has put the two-time World Cup winners at the brink of elimination in the group stage for the first time since 2002. With Croatia leading Group D, the battle is between Argentina, Iceland and Nigeria — the latter two with two games pending — for the crucial second spot. In other words, Argentina’s fate hangs on the outcome of Friday’s Iceland-Nigeria match . (IST 8.30 p.m.)
(Points as of June 21)
If Iceland loses to Nigeria:
This is the best case scenario for Argentinians. Nigeria will have 3 points, and the final result will depend on the outcome of the Argentina vsNigeria match on June 26.
- Argentina must beat Nigeria
- Iceland must lose or draw with Croatia
- If Iceland beats Croatia, Argentina will tie with Iceland in terms of goal, so the second spot will depend on who has a better goal difference. The tricky part about the goal difference is that Argentina has conceded 3 goals till date, which means they have a GD of -3. Iceland, in comparison, has a GD of 0.
If Iceland draw with Nigeria:
- Argentina must beat Nigeria
- Iceland must lose or draw with Croatia
- If Iceland beats Croatia, Argentina will tie with Iceland in terms of points, so the second spot will depend on who has a better GD.
If Iceland wins against Nigeria:
This is the worst case scenario for the south Americans. Iceland would have four points with one game to spare, so if they win or tie with Croatia, Argentina would be ruled out of the tournament. If that isn't worrying enough, Thursday's 0-3 loss against Croatia means that Argentina would have to overcome a four-goal difference at least (assuming that Iceland wins by a goal) to one-up Iceland.
- Iceland must lose to Croatia
- Argentina must beat Nigeria by scoring enough goals to eclipse Iceland's goal difference.
If Argentina pulls this off, they will meet the winner of Group C (likely to be France) in the knockout round.
