Ever since actor-turned-politician M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) parted with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and floated the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in 1972, > elections in Tamil Nadu have been a straightforward duel between the two principal Dravidian parties.
Minor challenges were posed now and then: in 1989 by G.K. Moopanar of the Congress and in 1996 by the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Vaiko, a leader who held considerable clout in the DMK but was pushed out as he emerged as a viable contestant to the top post. Moopanar managed to win 26 of the 234 seats in 1989 but quickly lost the initiative thanks to strategic blunders by the Congress high command. Mr. Vaiko’s Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) formed a pact with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in 1996 in what turned out to be a disastrous start to his election career outside the DMK. The front failed to score. The PMK, which tied up with the All India Indira Congress (Tiwari), tasted victories in four constituencies, but gave up contesting without the help of the Dravidian outfits in subsequent polls. In 2006, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) of actor Vijayakanth contested all constituencies alone and polled over 8 per cent but failed to win more than a seat. While he presented himself as the new force leveraging his wide network of fan clubs, the >DMDK was forced to align with the AIADMK in 2011 .
Apart from these brief experiments, the State has not encountered any significant attempt at challenging the two major parties in an Assembly election. Thus, the current situation in the run-up to the 2016 polls presents a unique historical moment where multiple parties, who have hitherto been minor co-travellers, have dared to deviate from the dominant narrative. But it is evident that breaking the bipolar hold will take more than just rhetoric given the might of the DMK and the AIADMK.
The emerging space Several important factors have aided the emergence of a multi-cornered fight in Tamil Nadu. Foremost is the > uncompromising attitude of the AIADMK and the DMK in sharing power. Both parties have consistently rejected the idea of a coalition government at the State level though they have been part of such governments at the Centre. While the AIADMK has always formed a majority government, the DMK refused to accommodate its partners in the Cabinet even when it was forced to take over the administration without a simple majority in 2006.
As Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) leader Thol. Thirumavalavan explained when he severed ties with the DMK last year, “monopolising power” was a calculated strategy of the two parties to ensure suppression of emerging alternatives. While the statement was an indictment of the DMK, > which offered just two seats to the VCK in the 2014 parliamentary election, it was also an attempt at self-criticism. For narrow electoral gains, almost every political party has made costly compromises with the AIADMK and DMK in the last 25 years. In essence, these parties were satisfied with the benefits that proximity to power brought them rather than attempting to gain real power. The strength of the Dravidian parties, aided by State apparatus, was such that even competing ideologies, such as the Dalit movement that emerged as a counter-hegemonic narrative, were deflected, disarmed and subjugated with precision by using compulsions of electoral politics and tools such as Tamil nationalism.
Second, the smaller parties have failed to pose consistent challenges to the two Dravidian parties with the aim of gaining narrow electoral advantages. The last decade saw their legitimacy come under serious question given the number of times they shifted alliances ahead of elections. Even the Left, which claims the moral high ground, was no exception to this trend. Thus, the idea of a challenge was restricted to moving from one front to another and not presenting a radical, real change. Temporary enmity and false ideological positions were conveniently constructed to justify alliance-hopping.
Also read: >BJP gearing up to attack main Dravidian parties
On the other hand, the two Dravidian parties have systematically and skilfully managed to subvert popular issues which usually threaten the ruling dispensation. While the leaderships of both the > AIADMK and DMK are currently caught in sensational corruption scandals (cases of misuse of power are numerous), the effects of these have been restricted to temporary losses. This is aptly reflected by a recent opinion poll reported by the Tamil television channel, Puthiya Thalaimurai , which showed that while at least 50 per cent of respondents thought the two main parties failed on the corruption front, 67 per cent still chose to vote the two.
Such a situation is explained by the fact that both parties have been highly successful in implementing immensely popular welfare schemes. Tamil Nadu perhaps has the best public distribution system in the country, which helps to largely negate inflation through the efficient supply of subsidised food. This takes care of price rise too. Added to this are populist schemes such as those under the ‘Amma’ brand and freebies such as television sets, mixies and grinders doled out to the voters.
Further complicating the situation is the identical stand that all these parties take on most issues. On some issues such as prohibition, positions shift according to the popular mood. For the smaller outfits, this makes it excruciatingly difficult to ideologically differentiate themselves from the major forces and attract voters who are used to alternating between the DMK and the AIADMK. Therefore, there is hardly anything radically different in the manifestos of the alternative fronts, making it tough for them to present themselves as a viable challenge.
Also read: >Congress, DMK firm up alliance
The current shift
Thus, the situation Tamil Nadu politics faces today, with the possibility of a five-cornered contest (AIADMK+, DMK+, DMDK+, People’s Welfare Front and PMK), is the culmination of the disillusionment that has set in among the minor parties in the last ten years. Smaller players are also gearing up for the post-Karunanidhi, post-Jayalalithaa period in which they believe the political space is bound to open up. This is perhaps why a party like the PMK has gone ahead and declared the relatively young Anbumani Ramadoss as chief ministerial candidate. This is also why the PWF consisting of the two Left parties, the VCK and the MDMK has reiterated that it is a formation for a marathon and not a sprint. As is evident from recent electoral history, none of these groups has the required vote share to gain power immediately. Victory in 2016 could be claimed if they force either the AIADMK or the DMK to form a coalition government after the elections by ensuring a hung Assembly. But 2016 could be the beginning of a race that could see a chequered flag in 2021.
(email: sruthisagar.y@thehindu.co.in)
