As during several elections in the past, the northeastern States are going to the Lok Sabha polls this time too under the shadow of the gun as ethnic insurgency continues to grip the region. Official reports of Maoists trying to gain a foothold in the region and forge alliances with some northeast-based ethnic insurgents have added to the worries of the Election Commission and the security forces. For this development-deficit region, unemployment has remained a gigantic problem that is pushing thousands of youth from every State to migrate to cities and growth centres outside it to look for greener pastures. The parties play upon the perceived fear among the indigenous populations of marginalisation as a consequence of illegal migration through the porous India-Bangladesh border. The concern gripping migrant religious and linguistic minorities of being clubbed together with illegal migrants and driven out of the country, adds to that fear.
The eight States together account for 25 seats, which could constitute a key component in the process of government-formation at the Centre. Of these, the Congress won 13 seats, the BJP four, the CPI(M) two, the NCP one seat and prominent regional parties one each, in 2009. The AGP and the BJP failed to clinch a pre-poll alliance this time. In 2009, a pre-poll alliance between the AGP and the BJP, and the emergence of the AIUDF, the principal Opposition party in the Assam Assembly, brought down the Congress' tally in the State. However, the choice of candidates by the AIUDF this time has fuelled speculation that it has reached a tacit understanding with the ruling Congress party to check the BJP. Tripura, currently the only Left-ruled State, however, still appears to be a fortress of the ruling CPI(M). In Nagaland, where inconclusive peace talks between the NSCN(IM) and the Centre continue to be a pivotal issue in garnering votes, the ruling Naga People’s Front (NPF) has fielded Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio as its candidate for the lone Lok Sabha seat. In Arunachal Pradesh, elections to the two Lok Sabha seats and the 60-member Assembly will be held simultaneously on April 9. In 2009, apart from winning the two Lok Sabha seats, the Congress also swept the Assembly polls held later in the year, winning 42 seats. This time, the Congress government recommended the dissolution of the Arunachal Pradesh Assembly well ahead of the expiry of its five-year term. The North East Regional Political Front, formed by 10 parties of the region in October 2013 in Guwahati, has not so far been seen as playing any role in the poll battle. In the absence of a formidable pre-poll combination of Opposition parties, and with the influence of regional parties limited to individual States, the Congress appears to be in a numerically advantageous position in the region.
