Elections to the German Bundestag on September 24 come down to a simple question: will Angela Merkel, Europe’s most influential politician, win her bid for a fourth term as Chancellor? The question appears to be a no-brainer. Except for leads in opinion polls early in his campaign, her challenger from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Martin Schulz, has never looked a serious contender. Conversely, Ms. Merkel, of the Christian Democratic Union, has recovered much of the political ground she lost in the wake of her policy to open the doors to over a million, mostly Syrian, migrants in 2015. When the SPD announced his candidature in January, there was an element of novelty about Mr. Schulz, who had been out of German politics for long. His relatively clean record from the coalition compromises between the SPD and the CDU also may have worked in his favour. But whatever advantages may have accrued to this former president of the European Parliament were lost when the SDP was defeated in May in regional elections in North-Rhine Westphalia, its traditional stronghold. Moreover, there are few areas of major political divergence between the rival candidates. Not only do both leaders share a common vision for a closer Europe, they even advocate a multi-speed process of eurozone integration. Blurring whatever political divisions that remain, in her 12 years as Chancellor Ms. Merkel assiduously incorporated in her political plank several of the SPD’s welfare policies. Her leadership of Europe and the broader Western alliance has become a critical factor after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s pursuit of an isolationist course. Given this scenario, Germany’s ever-cautious electorate is more likely to stay with experience rather than go in for an experiment. Thus, another grand coalition between Germany’s two largest parties is not an unlikely prospect, should the CDU and its Bavarian partner, the Christian Social Union, fail to secure a majority. In the event an alliance between them does not materialise, the Greens and the much-weakened Free Democratic Party would be in the reckoning.
There has been considerable anxiety about the eurosceptic, far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) making significant inroads, which would put the country’s anodyne post-War centrist politics on notice. The AfD’s rise bears close similarities to the increase in the popular vote of anti-immigrant xenophobic parties in other European countries. Although Ms. Merkel and the CDU have notched up consistently impressive leads in recent months, opinion polls point to a sizeable proportion of undecided voters. The coming week will see the contest move to a decisive phase, although it may be hard to speculate on who would gain from a strong turnout. Nonetheless, there appears to be little danger of erosion of the political centre in Germany yet, and the verdict could finally see off the populist upsurge that has threatened Europe this year.
