The tragic death of Otto Warmbier , the 22-year-old American student who was imprisoned and later released while in a state of coma by North Korea, is a huge setback to hopes for dialling down tensions between Washington and Pyongyang. The Korean crisis has worsened since President Donald Trump took office early this year. North Korea test-fired a number of missiles in defiance of international pressure, while the United States issued repeated warnings. Mr. Trump had put pressure on Beijing to rein Pyongyang in, and even praised it for its efforts. But the pressure does not seem to be working, with North Korea continuing with its nuclear missile programme. This was the backdrop to the release of Warmbier. He was arrested in Pyongyang in January 2016 while visiting as part of a tour group and later sentenced to 15 years of hard labour for the “hostile act” of trying to steal a propaganda poster. Within a few days of his release he died. The fallout in the U.S. is predictably charged. The Trump administration has flayed the North Korean regime for Warmbier’s death, but stopped short of calling for more sanctions or issuing new threats. This may be because three other Americans are still imprisoned in North Korea, and Washington’s priority for now is to secure their release.
On the face of it, this may not seem like the ideal time to advocate diplomacy. But it is worthwhile for Washington to ask whether its hostile policy towards North Korea has produced any positive result. The sanctions-only approach has not helped change Pyongyang’s behaviour. In fact, the longstanding hostility and Washington’s repeated threats have turned the Kim dynastic regime so paranoid that it doesn’t spare even American tourists visiting North Korea. Attempts to put pressure on Pyongyang through Beijing have also failed — either because China is not completely on board or it is simply reluctant to use its leverage over North Korea. Using force or attempting a regime change, a strategy that has not worked for the U.S. elsewhere, will be far more dangerous in the Korean Peninsula given that the North is an unpredictable nuclear power. This situation leaves Mr. Trump with only one viable option: to take the lead in a new diplomatic offensive with both carrots and sticks. Officials from Washington and Pyongyang had already established low-level contact for the release of Warmbier and the other three Americans who are still in North Korean custody. Mr. Trump could use the crisis as an opportunity to expand the engagement, get the Americans freed and then gradually start discussing more complex issues. The new South Korean President, Moon Jae-in, is an advocate of talks and has vowed to roll back the hostile foreign policy of his predecessor. If China also backs such an effort wholeheartedly, Mr. Kim would have to unequivocally demonstrate whether he is interested in peace or not.
