The Bihar Assembly elections are to be held in > five phases from October 12, to let the Election Commission cope with the challenging logistics involved in the exercise. But it will be an even more challenging test for the popularity not just of the “grand alliance” of the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, but also of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is heading the Bharatiya Janata Party-led combine’s campaign. With the BJP having decided not to project a chief ministerial candidate, Mr. Modi’s > personal charisma and his 15-month-long record at the Centre will be under scrutiny. The BJP’s decision is dictated not just by the failure of Kiran Bedi, who it chose to challenge Arvind Kejriwal in the Delhi Assembly elections earlier this year, but also by the fact that in > caste-dominated Bihar , focussing on any one individual could alienate those who do not belong to his or her community. Coming as it would less than a year after the BJP lost Delhi 67-3 to the Aam Aadmi Party, a victory for the grand alliance will give the opposition a shot in the arm. It will also give a fillip to the formation of similar alliances in the context of other State elections. A BJP victory here would bolster the belief that the party, and Mr. Modi, remain invincible.
With > so much at stake , it is no wonder that both sides are pulling out all the stops. As caste still remains the determining factor, the grand alliance is looking to Yadavs, Muslims and Kurmis (which is Mr. Kumar’s own community), who together account for roughly 32 per cent, for core support while working to break into the BJP’s extremely backward castes (EBCs) votes by pitching the battle as one between backward and forward castes. The BJP-led combine hopes to secure the backing of the upper castes, the EBCs and Dalits, even as it leverages Mr. Modi’s life story with the youth and the aspirational class — who account for over half the votes — to shatter the hold of caste. Mr. Kumar and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad are friends-turned-rivals-turned-uneasy-partners who between them – along with Mr. Lalu Prasad’s wife Rabri Devi — have ruled Bihar for some 20 of the last 25 years. If Mr. Lalu Prasad has not abandoned his image of an old-style socialist if backward-caste leader, Mr. Kumar would like people to describe him as a development-oriented, modern politician. The two have come together to stave off political irrelevance, and have so far succeeded in keeping their heads above the water. Mr. Kumar has even hired for his campaign a publicist-strategist who worked for Mr. Modi in the 2014 general elections. Now, it is left to Bihar’s 66 million voters to determine the direction of politics not just in this populous and backward State, but perhaps in the country at large.
