As opposing caste combinations line up behind the two key electoral alliances, one led by the BJP and the other by the Janata Dal(U), the battle for Bihar has now also turned towards securing the votes of the youth, the aspirational class and the urban electorate.
For while both sides remain focussed on consolidating and enlarging their own social constituencies, the results of the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 in the State demonstrated the efficacy of making appeals that might cut through the old social combinations.
A senior BJP leader from Bihar told The Hindu that his party was looking closely at those who are between the ages of 18 and 40, who account for about 50 per cent of the population. “This section is both young and what is now described as aspirational: they have moved from the earlier two phases of Indian politics — of want and then identity to aspiration now.
To this section, Narendra Modi is a role model, one who has moved from a state of want to the pinnacle of fame and success. On the other hand, Lalu Prasad, who might have taken that trajectory earlier, has sunk into family politics.”
JD(U) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose grand alliance includes old comrade-turned political rival-turned alliance partner Lalu Prasad largely because the Yadavs form the single biggest caste bloc in the State — around 15 per cent, is aware that Mr. Modi’s appeal to the youth and the aspirational class has not quite faded.
A key strategist for Mr. Kumar’s campaign said, “This will be tough to counter — our reply so far are Nitishji’s seven commitments focussed on the youth.”
Mr. Kumar has made concrete promises that include giving youth in the age group of 20-25 a monthly allowance of Rs. 1,000 for nine months while they look for a job; providing students who have passed Class XII a student credit card to help them secure a bank loan of Rs. 4 lakh, with the State government providing 3 per cent interest subvention on the loan; establishing a Rs. 500-crore venture capital fund from which young entrepreneurs can get start-up capital to set up manufacturing units; and free Wi-Fi facility in all colleges and universities and registration and modern employment consultancy centres in all 38 districts to provide basic computer education, language training and skill development to 1.5 crore youths in the State.
But JD(U) sources added that while the party hoped to attract the young and aspirational vote through these promises, they still felt that even this section would vote largely on caste lines.
The JD(U) is concerned that the BJP-led alliance will have its traditional advantage in the district headquarters, that is in urban Bihar and that they need to counter this.
BJP leaders from the State here broadly acknowledge that the JD(U)-led grand alliance will get the Yadav-Muslim-Kurmi votes; JD(U) leaders, in turn, admit that the upper castes, and a substantial section of the most backward castes and Dalits will throw in their lot with the BJP-led combine.
For the Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance, the concern is not about getting the Yadavs on board: “The Yadavs have been out of power in the State for so long that they just want to be back, though Nitishji is the CM candidate. And since the RJD and the JD(U) will be contesting the same number of seats, the race is to ensure that the RJD wins more seats than the JD(U),” said a JD(U) strategist.
