The recently concluded U.S.-China Strategic and Economic dialogue generated a lot of hope in the media. But most analysts missed the subtle message delivered by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army just a few days before the talks in the form of successful testing of the WU-14 Hypersonic Missile.
For a discerning audience, the Chinese message is loud and clear. Its relentless march towards national rejuvenation will continue, despite President Xi Jinping stating that China should avoid ‘Thucydides Traps’ in its quest. Similarly, the actions taken by his regime, be it in South China Sea or elsewhere, are clearly triggering the very same security dilemmas among its neighbours and in the U.S.
The inconsistency in Chinese policy arises through conflict between the deeply ingrained Chinese traditions and the modern international political norms of nation states. This dichotomy is clearly visible between the entrenched Chinese idea of Tianxia, a Sino-centric world view where China inherently regards itself as the supreme rule maker in its own ‘enclosed’ world, and the current international scenario where the ancient China-centred world no longer exists, especially for its neighbouring modern nation states. While some Chinese policymakers would like to believe that China dominated its neighbours throughout history, it is evident that China’s neighbours have had their own naturally endowed spaces, resources, and advantages to function as independent agents. The crucial role played by China’s neighbours in its history cannot be ignored.
Complications in foreign policy This inherent Chinese tendency to consider itself as a heavenly ordained, preeminent, and benevolent power in today’s modern world, extending security and economic benefits those who submit to its superiority, creates complications in its foreign policy. China’s reason for its recent efforts to build two light towers in South China Sea shows that it assumes the role of a guardian providing free access to global commons, the open sea-lanes, for the international community.
Even though President Xi recently suggested re-adoption of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence while advocating equal status to all other countries, the inherent contradiction between China’s desire to play the benign role and the traditional Tianxia worldview acts as a major impediment in assuring the world of its good intentions.
Another key issue that can lead to the perpetuation of security dilemmas arises from the current Chinese efforts to incorporate the modern ‘Western’ international relations theories, such as Alfred T. Mahan’s theory of sea power, into the long-held idea of Tianxia. An amalgamation of the hegemonic concepts that sprang out of both Eastern and Western cultures will create a potent platform that can justify Chinese dominance over the world, which in turn will trigger a stiff resistance from China’s neighbours and other dominant world players. In its anxiety to rectify the discriminatory international power structure that it was forced to endure during its ‘century of weakness’, China certainly feels a need and urgency to create capabilities to ensure that it will never have to face such a situation again. However, the strategies that it seeks to adopt in creating a new edifice are leading to the reinforcement of the Thucydides Trap. By inadvertently harbouring hegemonic tendencies, the very rise of China could threaten its neighbours. Even in a world that is bound by greater economic integration, these insecurities will breed further dilemmas.
China, to realise its cherished dream of a ‘peaceful’ rise, should instead ensure that it does not force its neighbours to endure similar hegemonic oppression that it was forced to go through in its century of weakness.
Resolution of this intractable problem has to be three-pronged. One, China should examine the inherent dichotomy between the traditional Tianxia system and the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, and refrain from incorporating hegemonic worldviews from the Western perspective. The failure to address these structural blind spots will eventually turn the erstwhile maritime and land-based silk routes, which in antiquity played the role of a bridge between the East and West while allowing Chinese culture and trade to flourish, into flash-points.
For China’s neighbours, and in turn the U.S., resorting to coercive military action cannot be a feasible solution similarly hoping that growing economic enmeshment of China can remove the security dilemmas would not facilitate regional peace.
Finally, an enduring solution cannot be achieved by depending on rigidly drawn lines based on claims and counter-claims of the modern nations. Only a collective framework promoting a closer Asia-Pacific community based on the principle of non-domination can ensure a stable future to this densely populated region of the world.
(Nemmani Sreedhar was a Senior Reporter with The Hindu and earlier served in the Indian Air Force. He is currently pursuing Master of Arts in law and Diplomacy at The Fletcher School. Barbara Yuhui Chai is a graduate from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.)
