This year’s northeast monsoon could bring in enough rainfall, if not bountiful, to the State, compared to the poor monsoon last year.
“The monsoon may be close to normal or even above normal,” said a senior official of the Meteorological Department.
The monsoon between October and December is the State’s main rainy season accounting for about 50 per cent of the annual rainfall of 92 cm.
If this year’s monsoon does not yield much rainfall, the Cauvery delta could be in for trouble, as two of the districts – Thanjavur and Nagapattinam - did not receive much rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon.
The present storage of the Mettur reservoir is around 58 thousand million cubic feet (tmc ft), against the capacity of 93.47 tmc ft.
Last year, the State received 29 cm of rainfall, against an expected 44 cm – a deviation of minus 33 per cent. This despite three very severe cyclonic storms – Phailin, Lehar and Madi, and severe cyclonic storm Helen, which developed over the Bay of Bengal in the wintry months. Yet, in terms of rainfall, 2013 was the worst in the last 15 years for the State, Met officials say.
In the recent past, the northeast monsoon has not failed the State.
Between 2004 and 2011, the rainfall departure from the anticipated amount, as recorded, was either excess or on the positive side of normal value.
Only in 2012, the deviation was minus 16 per cent, even though this was, as per meteorological parlance, regarded as normal (the departure ranging from minus 19 per cent to plus 19 per cent).
This year, during the southwest monsoon, the State received 30.6 cm rainfall against the normal of 32 cm – a deviation of minus five per cent.
While six districts, including Coimbatore, Chennai and Theni, fell under the category of “excess districts,” 13 districts each were under the classifications of “normal” and “deficit” districts.
Biggest beneficiary
Coimbatore was the biggest beneficiary of the monsoon with 76 cm rainfall, recording a whopping deviation of 303 per cent. Chennai received 53 cm (a deviation of 21 per cent); The Nilgiris – 102 cm (34 per cent) and Theni – 30 cm (91 per cent).
Among the deficit districts were Thanjavur and Nagapattinam, which should be a cause for concern to officials in charge of water management and agricultural production. Thanjavur recorded 22 cm (deviation: minus 32 per cent) and Nagapattinam too received 22 cm of rainfall (minus 23 per cent).
The only consolation was that Tiruvarur received a few cm of rainfall (25 cm) more than what the other two districts had.
Tiruchi and Madurai also came under the deficit districts category, with 14 cm and 23 cm, the figures of deviation being minus 52 per cent and minus 32 per cent.
