India’s monsoon rainfall is expected to be ‘above average’, said the New Delhi-based weather forecaster Skymet, a private agency.
According to the company, India will get 5% more rain than the normal 887 mm that it gets in the monsoon months of June, July, August and September. There was only a 15% chance of the monsoon being ‘below normal,’ defined as monsoon rains being less than 95% of the normal.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), the official weather forecasting agency, is expected to announce its forecast on Tuesday.
Skymet said in a statement that central India and the western coast would see ‘fairly good rains’ and the latter half of the monsoon was likely to see better rainfall than the first half. Rainfall in June is likely to be 10% deficient with a pickup expected in July and August, the most important months as far as cropping is concerned.
Parts of Maharashtra are reeling under drought-like conditions with key Indian reservoirs at a decadal low. A good monsoon this year is critical to boost agricultural productivity as well as farm incomes, especially on the back of successive monsoon failures in 2014 and 2015.
“We have more confidence in our weather forecasting models this time than last year,” said Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet. The company underestimated the monsoon deficit last year.
Several agencies from around the world, including the IMD, have hinted that the monsoon could be better than previous years. The key reason being a waning El Nino: a meteorological phenomenon associated with the heating up of the Central Pacific and frequently responsible for drying up monsoon rains in India.
Skymet further said that it expected the monsoon to set in on time over Kerala in the week around June 1.
