The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that rain in the balance two months of the current monsoon season would also by and large remain good, though it may not be heavy as it has been doing over the past two months.
The rainfall for the country as a whole over August and September is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) for the two-month period plus or minus model error of 8 per cent, an IMD press release said on Thursday.
“There is a 43 per cent probability for the rains to be near normal [94-106 per cent of the LPA], 42 per cent probability for it to be below normal [less than 94 per cent of the LPA] and 15 per cent probability for it to be in excess [more than 106 per cent of the LPA,” a senior IMD official said.
The first half of the four-month season ended on July 31 with the country as a whole recording an excess of 17 per cent rainfall for the period. Nearly half of the total geographical area of the country – 47 per cent to be precise, has recorded excess rain, and 39 per cent normal rain.
The deficit areas are mainly in Bihar, Jharkhand and the north-east. Rainfall has been 44 per cent below normal in the Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura belt, 42 per cent below normal in Arunachal Pradesh, 40 in Assam-Meghalaya region, 29 in Bihar and 26 per cent below normal in Jharkhand.
In rest of the country, Central India, which comprises Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, has had the most bountiful rainfall so far. The region recorded an excess of 46 per cent over the normal.
It is followed by the southern peninsula. The region, which comprises Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, recorded an excess of 27 per cent.
The north-west region, which covers Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh. Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, received 25 per cent above normal rainfall.
Speaking to The Hindu, IMD Director-General L.S. Rathore said there was a distinct possibility of the situation in Bihar, Jharkhand and the north-east to improve over the next two months.
