Country to get 98 per cent of long period average for the season as a whole

In what should come as a big relief to policymakers who are grappling with a slowdown of the economy, monsoon forecast models of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have indicated that rainfall during the current monsoon would continue to be copious in the coming months, with a fairly uniform distribution across the country.

Releasing an update of the long range forecast, IMD Director-General L.S. Rathore said the re-run of the models with fresh data obtained since the last forecast of April had reconfirmed the prediction that the country could get 98 per cent of the long period average for the season as a whole. In addition, they have shown that rainfall in July would be 101 per cent of the normal and that for August 96 per cent of the normal.

The southern peninsular region — Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands — is likely to top the table with a rainfall of 103 per cent for the season as a whole, followed by central and north-east India with a rainfall of 98 per cent each and north-west 94 per cent.

Central India comprises Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh and the north-east region includes West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sikkim, Assam, Nagaland, Tripura, Meghalaya, Manipur and Mizoram. The north-west region includes Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

At a press conference, Dr. Rathore emphasised that though compared to south India, north-west India is likely to get lesser rains in absolute terms, it will certainly not be insignificant.

Meanwhile, with the monsoon steadily progressing northward, the country as a whole has so far received 28 per cent more rainfall than normal.

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