As Pakistan readies to discuss all issues including Jammu and Kashmir with India at the ministerial level, the Foreign Office and a section of the strategic community is hoping New Delhi will show some visible sign of accommodation that will allow Islamabad to stay the course of peace talks.
Though encouraged by the “atmospherics” of the June 24 Foreign Secretary-level talks and the prevalent mood since, the Foreign Office is keeping expectations low with the refrain that the aim would be to identify the doable and address the trust deficit.
“All issues will be discussed” and Pakistan hopes the ministerial engagement will allow the two countries to engage in a sustained manner, Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit said.
Pakistan is particularly keen on ensuring continuity to deliberations on various issues, and the two ministers are expected to put their heads together on evolving a mutually acceptable structured form of dialogue in place of the composite dialogue that everyone feels has run its course.
That India will again insist on outcomes in the Mumbai terror case is a given, and the general opinion within the strategic community is that the Pakistan Government is not averse to moving on this front.
“But it is not easy for Pakistan. It is still not a free field and Pakistan has to move carefully or it could get its fingers burnt,” chairman of The Institute of Strategic Studies Tanvir Ahmad Khan explains.
‘Is there political will?'
For Pakistan to take positive steps on other issues, India will have to demonstrate its sincerity towards dialogue because there is an influential constituency here that believes New Delhi returned to the negotiating table not out of conviction but because its no-talk strategy had run out of steam or under pressure from common friends. “Is there a political will in India to move forward,” asks Mr. Khan.
This is a recurrent question, particularly in view of what happened in India after the two Prime Ministers issued a joint statement in Sharm el-Sheikh last year. Referring to the flak Prime Minister Manmohan Singh drew after that statement, former senator Enver Baig of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) said that at some point, the two countries should involve the hardliners in the dialogue.
“There is a perception in India that nothing can move in Pakistan without the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence. So, involve them in the talks. As far as politics is concerned, the principal opposition party in Pakistan — the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) — is with the PPP, but in India the Congress cannot say the same of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Involve them in the dialogue at some stage if that will help widen the constituency for peace,” Mr. Baig said.
Afghanistan issue
Afghanistan is another irritant that is likely to come up. A security analyst said the two countries need to talk to each other and reconcile their respective interests, adding that there is no reason why India should not have an abiding interest in an area it has historic links with just because a buffer state came up in between. In turn, India should also do some course correction and accept that Pakistan cannot be air-brushed out of Afghanistan with which it has a long border and common tribes. “Both should state the nature of their respective interests,” the analyst said.
As for Pakistan continuing to block the transit of Afghan-bound Indian goods through Wagah, Mr. Khan said that while it could be because of fear of competition from cheaper and better Indian goods, Islamabad may also be holding back to have a negotiating card to show some reciprocity at an opportune moment.
‘Game-changer'
Of the view that Pakistan would benefit from such trade — which is also being advocated by the United States for regional cooperation — analyst Talat Masood sought to underline the importance of improved bilateral relations by billing it a “game-changer.”
“Our internal politics and mindset can change because everything we do is India-centric,” explained the former army officer, adding that the resolution of issues with India could well turn Pakistan from a security-oriented state to a people-oriented one.
