Young Tamal Biswas (name changed) of Barrackpore in West Bengal used to be a non-cardholding cadre of the Communist Party of India (Marxist). But last year, he decided to quit and join the Trinamool Congress.
“It was getting increasingly difficult for me to run my small business, working for the party (CPI-M),” said the man in his late 20s. Essentially this is one of the key problems being faced by the CPI(M) in the State — retaining cadres aged below 30. The youth brigade is fast depleting.
But then, that is a small issue compared to what the Left Front is going through in the State. Let alone cadres, several Left Front MLAs joined the Trinamool and two of them have been nominated as candidates for the coming Lok Sabha election.
“Today, I am filing nomination as a Trinamool candidate in Alipurduar,” said Dasharath Tirkey, erstwhile tribal face of the Left Front in north Bengal. Perhaps, a bigger blow was dealt by Abdur Rezzak Molla, farmer leader of the Left from south Bengal, who not only openly challenged the senior leadership, calling it “a front of student leaders,” but also formed a platform to cut into the Left’s minority vote base. He was expelled a month ago, but not before he caused damage to the party.
“He is one leader who managed to keep the Left vote intact even in the 2011 Assembly election in his constituency in central Bengal,” says Lotub Ali, a textile worker from there. Mr Ali feels the Left Front has “damaged” its mass base among Muslims in south and central Bengal.
Leaders of the CPI(M) do not deny blame for the party damaging its Muslim vote base. All these years between 1977 and 2011, the Left parties, even as they had managed to keep the anti-Left, non-minority vote divided, consolidated a mass base among Muslims.
“Our analysis after the Assembly polls shows that in Hooghly and South 24 Parganas districts a large number of Muslims who were attached to their land were extremely upset at a land acquisition drive of the Left government. Panic spreads among minorities faster, and they, scared of losing their livelihoods, went against us,” says a party functionary.
Several districts have around 50 per cent Muslim population. Murshidabad and Maldah in the central part have 64 and 52 per cent. South Dinajpur got nearly 50 per cent and at least 10 others out of the 19 districts got over 20 per cent. Nearly 75 per cent of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies are located in these districts of south, central and north Bengal.
In further trouble, the adverse report on the condition of Muslims by a “little wise man” damaged the party’s prospects in the State severely. “I used to know Justice Rajendra Sachar very well. But the damaging report he had given, saying the condition of Muslims steadily deteriorated in Bengal, is half-true,” says a senior leader. The Trinamool played up the report in Muslim areas.
Moreover, in several constituencies, the CPI(M) and the whole of the Left Front are not managing to campaign or even put up polling agents. Party functionaries feel this is also going to affect the CPI(M)’s prospects in the coming election. However, there is a ray of hope for the Left. It ironically is coming from the right. There is little doubt that if the so-called “Modi-wave” touches Bengal, which BJP leaders are claiming will, it will benefit only the Left Front. The rationale is that the Left Front’s dedicated electors will never vote for the BJP. So the BJP’s gain is not the loss of the Left but of the Congress or, more significantly, of the Trinamool. “I do not deny this analysis as there are two broad platforms in West Bengal — the Communists and the non-Communists,” says BJP vice-president and Darjeeling candidate Surinder Singh Ahluwalia. “We will not always get the non-Communist vote; there is little doubt about that,” he adds.
Moreover, the BJP’s vote share reduced from 6.14 per cent in the last Lok Sabha election to 4.08 in the 2011 Assembly election. “But thanks to Narendra Modi, there will be a definite rise this time,” Mr. Ahluwalia says. Anticipating some rise in the poll percentage, the BJP has put up candidates in all 42 constituencies, unlike in the previous elections. In addition, there is the traditional BJP vote in Bengal. This vote stayed with the Congress and later with the Trinamool as the BJP failed to put up any fight in the past. Many feel this vote will come back to the BJP in 2014, affecting the Congress and the Trinamool.
In this context, the Left Front just needs to perform as it did in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, during which it got 43.3 per cent votes. “If we stick to it, we will get 20 seats, given that the BJP will eat into the Trinamool vote … I can again get back to CPI(M),” says Mr. Tamal Biswas.
But in the 2011 Assembly election, it got only 39.68 per cent. In the corresponding period, the Trinamool vote share went up by 7.72 percentage points. Even in the last panchayat election, the Left vote share shrank substantially.
It seems Mr. Biswas will have to wait for some more time before he gets back to the party he loves.
