The United Democratic Front kept its date with victory in the Vengara by-election with a winning margin that is satisfying, if not impressive, given the fact that K.N.A. Khader, the IUML candidate, contested in a constituency that was reckoned as a pocket borough of party strongman P.K. Kunhalikutty. It was but natural that Mr. Khader had polled a less number of votes compared to the previous election.
The victory as such was decided even before the vote was cast, but the higher percentage of votes polled by the Left Democratic Front candidate P.P. Basheer of the CPI(M) provided a straw for the ruling coalition to cushion its fall.
The leaders of the two coalitions have interpreted the victory through their respective prism. Looking at it from an overall Kerala politics, the signals from Vengara clearly indicate that it would not be that easy for the Bharatiya Janata Party to break the bipolar politics of Kerala.
The BJP national leadership had gone full blast with a campaign that had an all-Kerala agenda, which sought to draw that momentum from Vengara, known as an IUML bastion.
It is possible that the highwire Janaraksha Yatra of BJP State president Kummanam Rajasekharan could have helped the Social Democratic Party of India indirectly in getting a voting percentage that even its leadership would have never imagined.
It is possible that the LDF also got the benefit of a section of the minority votes, particularly the anti-IUML votes. The voting percentage of the SDPI does not in any way indicate its strength in Malappuram, but it does have the potential to rock the IUML’s boat, which has been sailing smoothly for the last decade with the eclipse of the People’s Democratic Party.
For the IUML, Mr. K.N.A. Khader, who is known for his oratory skills, is expected to fill the gap left by Mr. P.K. Kunhalikutty’s Parliament debut and shore up its performance. He is expected to give adequate support to Dr. M.K. Muneer, who has taken over as the Legislative party leader of the IUML in the Assembly.
