f one were to go by the electoral history of Kerala, there can be only one prognosis about the May 16 Assembly elections: that of a government change and, being the stronger of the two challengers to the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) out there, the Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) returning to power. It is the distance between history and contemporary reality that the LDF seeks to bridge as it mounts a strong bid to wrest power in the State.
Given the strong public sentiments it could trigger through pitched battles it had waged with the government over issues of corruption, both within and outside the Assembly, over the past five years, the LDF is hopeful that the elections would end up true to history.
It is not that all the agitations that the LDF had unleashed over issues of corruption were completely successful.
Its siege of the government Secretariat seeking Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s resignation over the solar scam did not achieve its goal. Still, the government was forced to announce a judicial inquiry into the solar scam with, as it turned out later, serious negative consequences for the ruling alliance.
The LDF bid to prevent former Finance Minister K.M. Mani from presenting the 2015-16 budget also suffered a setback owing to the violence that erupted on the floor of the Assembly.
However, the Opposition was able to keep the issue alive, which ultimately led to Mr. Mani being forced to step down in response to an adverse observation from the Kerala High Court.
The recent round of punches and counterpunches over the UDF government’s liquor policy has not been entirely to the LDF’s advantage owing to lack of clarity on what to do about the bars shut by the UDF regime.
Sore point
The debate over who would be the alliance’s Chief Minister is also a sore point with the LDF. But there is total unity in the alliance which was evident in the relative ease with which the alliance completed its seat-sharing exercise. Not so easy was the candidate selection, especially for the CPI(M), and that has left many in the LDF wondering whether these could end up being unforced errors of the alliance in a tightly contested election.
The alliance also faces headwinds in the form of the BJP-BDJS alliance. The impact of the newly formed alliance may not be even across the State, but it could prove a spoiler for at least a few LDF candidates where the BDJS has strong presence.
At the same time, the attempt of the BJP to emerge as a major player in Kerala could prove beneficial to the LDF given its potential to send shockwaves among the minority communities, particularly the Muslim community.
The local government polls had shown what that could mean in electoral terms and it may not be any different in the Assembly polls too.
