While loss of power is in itself a heavy blow to the Congress and the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, there could be far more serious dimensions to the manner of their defeat, particularly for the Congress, which has suffered a substantive erosion of both its majority and minority community vote base.
In all the previous Assembly elections, the outcomes have been decided by mostly a marginal shift in votes from the UDF to the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) or vice-versa. On such occasions, the voter behaviour had a clear bipolarity about it that could be easily gauged, worked upon and, conditions permitting, reversed five years later. The outcome of the 2016 Assembly elections suggest that the swing in votes can be far more complex from now on and that it could spell trouble for the Congress in the near term and perhaps for the CPI(M) in the longer term.
Other options for votersThe Congress may have already fallen victim to the new process with its majority community support base showing clear signs of having cracked even as the Muslim and Christian communities chose to breach their long held unwritten covenant with the grand old party, and back the LDF. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s arrival as a claimant for Kerala electoral space has certainly speeded up the process, giving the traditional Congress supporters another option and triggering a reaction from the minority communities, particularly the Muslim voters.
A comparison of the BJP’s vote share in the 2011 Assembly election and the just-concluded polls (complex owing to the figures for the 2014 local government and elections and 2015 Lok Sabha elections) would suggest that there has been a substantive increase in the BJP’s share of votes, from 6.07 per cent in 2011 to 14.65 per cent now. It would appear that while the LDF was able to retain its support base among the majority community somewhat firmly, there was a loosening of the grip that the Congress had on its part of the same vote base, the gainer perhaps being the BJP more than the LDF.
The process may have to do with the failure of the Congress to demarcate itself clearly from the BJP in the minds of the voters, with the persistent corruption scandals and allegations adding to the voter fatigue with the UDF. Coupled with this process was the sharp movement of the minority votes to the CPI(M) and LDF, which has traditionally remained glued to the Congress and its allies. The CPI(M) had, on a few occasions in the past, used clever electoral tactics to win the confidence of sections of the Christian vote base, its victory in Idukki in the last Lok Sabha elections being a case in point. But the manner in which it has made inroads into the strongholds of the UDF in Central Kerala suggests there was a surprisingly voluntary leftward movement of the Christian votes this time.
This process also might get complicated if, as many believe, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi succeed in winning over the Catholic votes. That might see the non-Catholic Christian votes shifting towards to the Left rather than the Congress, which might have already happened in some constituencies in the former Travancore area where the LDF scored surprise victories.
Muslim votersIn the case of the Muslim voters, the similar movement, seen almost across the State, was understandable given their perceptions about the growing BJP presence in Kerala. The loser in all these shifts and swings was the Congress in the present elections, which should ring the warning bells for the party if it wishes to regain the once sure ground that it appears to be losing in Kerala.
