There is a weary eye on the build up of clouds across much of Karnataka, in the hope that monsoon will finally pick up in the State. However, nearly three weeks since the official declaration of monsoon here, the signs of normal rain in key areas are yet to gather steam.
On Monday, a thick cloud signified the strengthening of the “second wave” of monsoon, after the “first wave” — which started in the second week of June — withered away without impact.
After weeks of a lull, large parts of Kodagu were drenched in rain. While the preceding week received less than 11.4 mm of rainfall, Monday itself saw nearly 46.9 mm of rain. The Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa forecasts moderate to heavy rainfall over the next 48 hours.
However, is this enough? “For the inflows to start increasing in the Cauvery reservoirs, we need to have heavy to very heavy rainfall for at least three days. Since there is a strong trough at Arabian Sea, much of the rain-bearing clouds is going towards Maharashtra and Gujarat,” said G.S. Srinivasa Reddy, Director, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC).
Making up for deficient rain
While rain has been strong in north Karnataka and near-normal in coastal Karnataka, it is the lower rainfall on the leeward side of the Western Ghats that has seen concerns rise.
Take for instance, south interior Karnataka, which plays host to most major reservoirs and rivers in the State. This year, the region — from where springs Cauvery and its reservoirs — has seen 22% deficient rainfall. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, southern Karnataka and Malnad regions have recorded 90.2 mm rainfall, while the ‘normal’ is 115.6 mm.
KSNDMC says the hill areas of Malnad (Kodagu, Shivamogga and Chikkamagaluru) have seen nearly 18% deficiency; while the Cauvery basin areas have seen up to 35% lesser rainfall. Consequently, the inflows have stagnated in the Cauvery reservoirs. Four reservoirs of Harangi, KRS, Kabini and Hemavati store 6.54 tmcft, or nearly 1 tmcft lesser than the corresponding period last year, which was subsequently declared as drought.
“We had forecast heavy rain from Monday. But while cloud cover has increased in south interior Karnataka, the density of rain-bearing clouds in still low,” said Mr. Reddy.
In May, when normal monsoon had been predicted in peninsular India, much of the hope was for rain in June. Mr. Reddy says July is forecast to be below-normal rainfall.
Sowing hit drastically
The lowered rainfall over the past week has also seen sowing reduce drastically. During this time last year, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre said 25 lakh hectares of agricultural land had been sowed. This year, it is just 12 lakh hectares with much of Bombay-Karnataka region being the worst hit.
With significantly lesser rainfall in Malnad, where large tracts of land see rain-fed paddy cultivation, sowing is yet to pick up. Paddy is cultivated in 70,000 acres in the command area of Bhadra reservoir spread over Shivamogga, Davangere, Chikkamagaluru and Haveri districts.
Naveen Kumar G.K., a farmer from Gunavanthe village in Chikkamagaluru district, said as the monsoon had not picked up, farmers were not yet taking up preparation work of nursery of paddy seedlings, locally known as sasimadi. Normally, farmers would have started the preparation in mid-June itself.
Worrying that rain might be deficient this year too, Chandrashekhar, a paddy-grower from Anavatti village in Sorab taluk, said he would switch over to maize, a less water-intensive crop, if rain did not pick up by July first week.
Lower inflows
It was in September last year that the failure of monsoon triggered distress and violence across the borders of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. So far this year, the signs have not been good. While Tamil Nadu is awarded 10 tmcft of inflows in dams of Cauvery for June, the State has seen less than 4.6 tmcft so far.
Mandya and Chamarajanagar districts have seen “scanty rainfall”, with less than 60% of the normal rain received.
