It is safe at the moment, with no action being taken so far
The five-month-old Jagadish Shettar government is expected to escape from the brink of collapse with neither the Opposition nor the B.S. Yeddyurappa faction of the Bharatiya Janata Party keen on forcing dissolution of the Legislative Assembly.
It was initially thought that the days of the BJP government in Karnataka were numbered and that the collapse depended on the action that the BJP would initiate against the legislators and Ministers who attended the mega-launch of the KJP at Haveri on Sunday. However, with no precipitate action in the offing, the government at present is safe, with the BJP enjoying a majority on the floor of the Legislative Assembly, which is at present in session in Belgaum. The majority can be under threat by just a small group of six legislators in the event of a test of strength in the 225-member Assembly where the BJP enjoys a strength of 118.
Mr. Jagadish Shettar told The Hindu “my government is safe and will complete its full-term. Action against the legislators associated with the KJP will be decided at a meeting of the core committee comprising senior leaders of the BJP and the government on Wednesday. There is also no move to adjourn the session and it will go on till December 13, as scheduled”.
On his part, Mr. Yeddyurappa has dared the BJP high command and State leadership to take disciplinary action against the party legislators supporting his new party. He said: “Any action against the legislators will result in the fall of the Jagadish Shettar government six months ahead of the elections in May 2013.” There are possibly three key actions which can ensure the end of the road of the present government. The first: the BJP can take stern action against the legislators against whom there is evidence of having violated party discipline, which in turn could lead to a fresh round of rebellion and a division within the party right away. The second: the Opposition can move a motion of no-confidence against the Chief Minister and his government given that the legislature is at present in session. The third: the Governor can direct the Chief Minister to exhibit his strength on the floor of the Legislative Assembly provided the Yeddyurappa faction or any other legislature party effectively conveys to the Governor that the strength of the ruling party stands reduced.
Interestingly, none of the three actions have been initiated, so far, nor are they likely as per available information. Sources in the Congress told The Hindu that the party high command is against moving a motion of no-confidence against the government since it could lead to an accusation that it had pulled down the government.