The ongoing firing along the International Border (IB) is expected to continue for some time until there is top-level intervention, say officers on the ground as well as experts. In addition, they point that Pakistan has an advantage in this area over India.
India and Pakistan continued to trade fire across the IB on Friday night. On Friday the Border Security Force (BSF) claimed to have killed seven Pakistani Rangers in retaliatory fire after its soldier was injured in sniper fire. “The spurt on IB was sudden. But it is now expected to continue,” one officer on the border said on Saturday.
Lt. Gen. H.S. Panag, former Northern Army Commander, said that in the Akhnoor, Jammu and Kathua areas, which Pakistan calls working boundary, “the population on our side is a mix of Hindus and Muslims.” “ It is advantageous for Pakistan to hot up this border. They will not only fire on BSF posts but also on villages displacing thousands,” he said
On the other hand it would be difficult for Pakistan to fire back on the LoC as any collateral damage would be counterproductive for them, he noted. “This sector is tricky. We will be at the receiving end here. So they will put the onus of de-escalation on us,” he added.
The way forward, he said, was for the commanders of the two border forces to meet and sort it out.
Ceasefire violations on the IB have drastically dropped compared to the last years and the trend seems to be reversing. In 2014 there were as many as 430 violations compared to four this year. The Army and the BSF have been on high alert since the Uri attack and the surgical strikes by the Army later.
“The IB sector will witness more attempts at infiltration if the intent of Pakistan is to execute a major event as quid pro quo for the surgical strikes. That is because it is easier to reach potential objectives in the plains sector,” former GOC of the Army’s 15 & 21 Corps, Lt. Gen. Syed Ata Hasnain said.
