For long, South Asian governments watched warily as many of their citizens set out for the battlefields of Iraq and Syria to fight for the Islamic State.
On Monday, the IS violence hit closer to home when an Italian national Cesare Tavella was shot dead in Dhaka by alleged IS terrorists.
Indian officials said they are verifying claims about the killing of Tavella, but warned that it could inspire more such lone wolf attacks in the region.
Officials point out that lone wolf attacks have been a key characteristic of the IS, especially outside the Syria-Iraq battlefields.
In France, Canada, Australia and elsewhere, lone wolf attacks have been the trend in recent months.
“The attack in Dhaka fits into the pattern, we must be prepared for such nasty surprises,” a senior intelligence official said.
An online statement issued in the name of the IS claimed responsibility for the murder of the 50-year-old as he was jogging on Monday evening in Dhaka’s high security Gulshan diplomatic zone.
A key characteristic
Officials point out that lone wolf attacks have been a key characteristic of the IS, especially outside the Syria-Iraq battlefields. In France, Canada, Australia and elsewhere, lone wolf attacks have been the trend in recent months. “The attack in Dhaka fits into the pattern, we must be prepared for such nasty surprises,” a senior intelligence official said.
While some sources argued that the Monday killing is part of growing extremism in Bangladesh, there is near-unanimity that India must be prepared for lone wolf attacks inspired by the IS.
In recent months, several liberal bloggers have been killed in Bangladesh by Ansarullah Bangla Team, an extremist group that has recently also issued a hit list of international bloggers. This group is believed to be linked to Al Qaeda. “The new wave of violence is not limited to Bangladesh,” a senior official said.
He pointed out that there are enough indications from the Indian mainland and the diaspora that the IS ideology is increasingly finding acceptance among many Muslim youth. “We have to admit that there are regular reports of people trying to propagate IS ideology, leaving for Syria and Iraq, or being deported from the Gulf region to India for their sympathy with IS cause. IS is a fringe threat, but a threat for sure,” he said.
Threat in Kashmir
Home Ministry estimates say that up to seven Indians are currently with the IS in Iraq and Syria, but just one of them is actually fighting for the group. Six other Indians have been killed fighting for IS, it says. Of the seven with the IS, two are from the Kalyan area of Mumbai, one is a Kashmiri from Australia, two came from Oman and Singapore, and a couple of others are from Karnataka and Telangana.
“What is most interesting is that we do not find credible inputs to believe the IS has a widespread support base in Kashmir. But it is finding takers in the rest of India,” he pointed out. Kashmir militancy with a religious undertone has been flaring for over two decades and would have been a fertile ground for a new violent Islamic group. “Reports from Kashmir have mostly been of youth waving IS flags after Friday prayers. There is no credible evidence of the IS taking root in Kashmir,” one official said.
“In the rest of India, a few dozen people are openly identified as those who have gone off to fight, or are involved in propagating the IS views, or were deported from the Gulf. The number of sympathisers would be several times more than what we know,” he said, admitting that a round of IS-inspired violence is possible.
Another senior official said the attack may be more a part of the growing extremist violence in Bangladesh than a new tide of IS violence in South Asia. “But we cannot rule out the possibility of such lone wolf attacks,” he said. “We do not have any inputs yet to show that there are individuals actively working for the IS in India,” he said.
