There could be a turnaround in the monsoon scenario in the next four to five days, according to the latest forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

In its weekly report released on Friday evening, the IMD said “an analysis of the current meteorological conditions indicate increase in rainfall activity in east, central, and north-west India due to development of the seasonal east-west trough, with embedded upper air cyclonic circulation.

“The condition would thus become favourable for further advancement of monsoon in some more parts of central India and northwest India, mainly during the second half of the [next] week.”

If the forecast were to come true, it would be good for the overall monsoon scenario.

Rainfall data available with the IMD as of Thursday evening shows that the cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season has been deficient in 74 per cent of the total geographic area: in 35 per cent of the total area, the deficiency is more than 60 per cent.

Northwest situation

The situation is especially forbidding in northwest India: rainfall in the region, which covers Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan is deficient by as much as 65 per cent.

The situation is somewhat better, but isn’t rosy enough in central and south peninsular India too: rainfall deficiency is 35 per cent in the former and 29 per cent in the latter region.

Central India comprises Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Orissa and Chhattisgarh and the south peninsular region comprises Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

In the south peninsular region, some areas have had a bad deal, while some others have had good rains.

Rainfall is deficient by as much as 55 per cent in Tamil Nadu-Pondicherry, 53 per cent in Rayalaseema, 51 per cent in south interior Karnataka, 46 per cent in north interior Karnataka, and 31 per cent in Kerala.

Best in Andaman and Nicobar Islands

The situation is by far the best in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where the rainfall has been 5 per cent more than the normal.

It is followed by Lakshadweep, where the deficiency is a mere 1 per cent, Telangana [a deficiency of 10 per cent], coastal Karnataka [deficiency of 12 per cent], and coastal Andhra Pradesh [deficiency of 18 per cent].

East and north-east India are the only areas that have so far recorded a normal rainfall.

The region, which covers Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and the North-eastern States, has so far recorded a rainfall 2 per cent more than the normal.

Besides the forecast for further advancement of the system in some more parts of central and northwest India, the IMD on Friday predicted that rainfall will occur at a few places in the south interior peninsula in the next week.

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