Former Egyptian president Mohamed Hosni Mubarak, arrested for his role in the 2011 uprising, was released last week. Vice-President under predecessor Anwar el-Sadat, the 88-year-old Mubarak was president for three decades since 1981. A general in the Egyptian Air Force until the mid-1970s, Mr. Mubarak exercised phenomenal control over the military, a critical factor in his consolidation of authority.
What led to his arrest?
In February 2005, Mr. Mubarak asked Parliament to amend the Constitution, with a view to introducing a directly elected multi-party presidential system through a secret ballot. The changeover to competitive polls was approved by the people in a referendum in May. In September of the same year, Mr. Mubarak won a fifth six-year term as President in the nation’s historic first multi-cornered contest for the highest constitutional office. His ruling National Democratic Party continued to enjoy a huge majority. Within months of his re-election, Mr. Mubarak declared his intention to remain President for life.
At the end of the 2011 mass protests, in the so-called 18-day uprising against his rule, Mr. Mubarak eventually handed over power to the military. The deaths of scores of protesters led to his detention and the beginning of protracted legal battles and swift political changes.
Why is he out of prison?
This March, Egypt’s top appeals court cleared Mr. Mubarak of any responsibility for the killings of hundreds of protesters in the uprising. The original conviction and sentence of life imprisonment the following year stated that Mr. Mubarak was merely an accessory to the murder, insofar as he failed to stop the massacre.
The judge hearing the case further ruled that the prosecution did not produce evidence to prove that the accused had directly ordered the killings. A retrial by an appeal court led to Mr. Mubarak’s acquittal in 2014. His release this March follows the confirmation of that acquittal. The former president has a single conviction for embezzlement.
There have been many twists and turns in the trial of Mr. Mubarak, culminating in his recent release. The course of the entire proceedings raised serious questions about the independence of the judiciary, a long-standing demand to ensure accountability in the administrative apparatus. While Mr. Mubarak and others in his close circle have all been acquitted, the lawyers, journalists and activists who challenged the regime are still in jail. The military has returned to its pre-eminent position, and there has been a surge in sympathy for Egypt’s patriarch. Questions linger about the prospects of the objectives behind the 2011 movement in the current political discourse, at least for now.
What is the future in Egypt?
Incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi seized power in 2013, when he was still a general, toppling Egypt’s first democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohamed Morsi. The then U.S. President, Barack Obama, had briefly halted defence cooperation with Cairo following the ouster of Mr. Morsi. The influence of the Islamic State on local militants, of course, prompted a rethink. But the Donald Trump administration has recently assured its long-standing regional ally of revival of military ties. The general scenario points to further consolidation of Mr. Sisi’s position. However, the 2018 presidential elections could prove a crucial test of his authority.
Is the Arab Spring dead?
Indeed, many nations, besides Egypt, that witnessed the massive popular uprisings earlier this decade have been plunged into political instability and bloody chaos. It would nevertheless be premature to write off the region’s historic democratic upsurge as a failure. The pre-eminence of the established order in Egypt, epitomised by the release of Mr. Mubarak, may lend plausibility to predictions of doom. But then, it is equally arguable that the historic 2011 mobilisation on Tahrir Square was itself a sequel to the earlier efforts at a concerted resistance against authoritarian rule. For instance, the 2005 demand for a multi-party contest to pick the President may not have achieved its real objective at the time. But it probably sowed the seeds of the uprising six years on. Egyptians may yet have the chance to look back at January 2011 with a similar sense of accomplishment.
GARIMELLA SUBRAMANIAM
