With people queuing up outside banks and ATMs to source legal tender, one question that emerges in the three Assembly constituencies that go to the polls on Saturday is whether this would impact the voter turnout. A section of observers and leaders of the two Dravidian parties – the AIADMK and the DMK – feel that the turnout of voters will remain unaffected by the crisis triggered by demonetisation.
Though the entire Tamil Nadu, like the rest of the country, has been witness to tales of hardship of people either trying to withdraw money from their accounts or exchange the demonetised notes for fresh notes, it will not come in the way of a large number of electors in the three constituencies – Thanjavur, Aravakurichi and Thiruparankundram – turning up on the election day, the parties say.
In terms of popular perception, the poll for the Aravakurichi and Thanjavur constituencies is viewed more as a by-poll though election to these seats was scrapped in May this year in the wake of allegations of large-scale bribing of voters.
In recent years, especially in the last 10 years, high voter turnout in by-elections has become the norm in the State. Of the 18 by-polls held since October 2006, on five occasions, the turnout exceeded the 80 per cent mark, and on eight occasions, it was in the range of 70 per cent to 79 per cent. In four occasions, the poll percentage varied from 60 per cent to 69 per cent, and only once, it was less than 60 per cent.
Even in the general elections, either to the Lok Sabha or to the Assembly, the turnout has been above 70 per cent. In the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the figures were 73.05 per cent and 73.74 per cent, respectively. Similarly, the 2011 and 2016 Assembly elections saw 78.29 per cent and 74.26 per cent turnout.
The 2011 figure remains an all-time high for the Assembly elections.
Political mobilisation
Discussing voter behaviour, observers and representatives of the two parties cite political mobilisation as the primary factor for their optimism. Both K.N. Nehru, the DMK’s coordinator for Thanjavur and a seasoned AIADMK Minister looking after Thiruparankundram who requested anonymity, emphasise that the campaign by their parties was quite intensive in the last two weeks. Apart from employing their senior leaders, the two parties had made their volunteers to “interact with electors frequently,” the representatives of the DMK and the AIADMK say.
“This time, the turnout will be 80 per cent in all the three constituencies,” Mr. Nehru says, confidently.
The campaign style of the two parties has prompted the Pattali Makkal Katchi to lodge a complaint with the Election Commission a few days ago, alleging widespread distribution of money.
M.G. Devesahayam, a former civil servant and now an anti-corruption activist, says the present situation, arising out of demonetisation, has been cleverly used by the political parties, considering the fact that there is enough time left for the exchange of the demonetised notes. Giving a left-handed compliment, he describes the response of the parties as a mark of “their fantastic ingenuity.”
G, Palanithurai, Chair for Panchayati Raj Studies, Department of Political Science and Development Administration of the Gandhigram Rural Institute, says the voters are also keenly watching how the two dominant parties are reacting to the demonetisation.
R.S. Bharathi, DMK’s Rajya Sabha Member of Parliament, says that it is very likely that the people of the State would use the by-poll as an opportunity to express their resentment and anger over demonetisation, which in turn would result in increased turnout.
