Standar & Poor’s on Monday said that its downgrade of the U.S. would have an impact on the exports and liquidity positions of Asia-Pacific economies, but poses no immediate risk to their sovereign ratings.
Without specifically naming India, the global ratings agency said that the potential longer term consequences of a weaker financing environment, slower growth and higher risk aversion were, however, some negative factors for Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings.
It also warned that the ratings downgrade of the U.S., along with the weakening sovereign creditworthiness in Europe, was pointing toward “an increasingly uncertain and challenging environment ahead”.
It said since the Asia-Pacific economies are dependent on exports to the US and Europe, some of the nations, like Thailand, Malaysia and Japan, are likely to “experience export-driven slowdown, either through weaker demand or lower export prices, or both.”
Late on Friday, global ratings agency S&P downgraded its U.S. sovereign rating to AA+ from AAA, with a negative outlook.
The report further said Asia-Pacific nations that have weaker forex reserves could face stress on account of tightening of the international liquidity position.
“Those with financial systems reliant on offshore markets may face reduced liquidity and a heightening of refinancing risk in the near term. To varying degrees, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Fiji, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Indonesia may be affected,” S&P said.
It also said that Asia-Pacific governments would need to use internal resources to support their own economies and financial sectors again.
It said economies like India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and New Zealand still continue to bear the scar of the economic downturn in 2008.
“If a renewed slowdown comes, it would likely create a deeper and a more prolonged impact the last one,” it added.
At the time of the global financial crisis in 2008, several countries, including India, had rolled out stimulus packages facilitating monetary expansion and lower taxes to mitigate the impact of the slowdown.
“The implications for sovereign creditworthiness in Asia-Pacific would likely be more negative than previously experienced and a larger number of negative rating actions would follow,” S&P said.
