With agricultural output expected to be better than last year on the back of a good monsoon so far, the Reserve Bank of India on Monday said that India’s GDP growth this fiscal could be higher than the 8 per cent projected in its monetary policy statement in April.
“Going by the progress of the monsoon so far, agricultural output is expected to be better than last year....lead indicators for services activities suggest continuation of the growth momentum,” the Reserve Bank said in its Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments-First Quarter Review 2010-11, released here today.
Industrial production continues to exhibit double-digit growth in the current year, notwithstanding some moderation in May, it added.
The Professional Forecasters’ Survey conducted by the RBI in June, however, placed the GDP growth for this fiscal higher at 8.4 per cent as against the 8.2 per cent reported in the previous round of the survey.
On the growth projections of different agencies, the RBI said that “all available projections of real GDP growth for 2010-11 are higher than 8 per cent.”
“The leading indicators point to the prospect of robust growth in the coming quarters and fast closing of the output gap,” it said.
It cited the prospect of a better kharif output than last year, buoyancy in the industrial sector notwithstanding the moderation in May and a significant pick-up in investment demand as major factors giving a positive growth outlook.
