What is Condorcet’s jury theorem in politics?

June 13, 2019 12:15 am | Updated 12:59 am IST

This refers to a theory which states that the wisdom of the crowds is usually better than that of experts in predicting the future. Decisions made through majority voting, for instance, are better than expert opinion. It is, however, important that a sufficient number of people are asked to participate in the vote to arrive at the right decision. Some believe that the accuracy of predictions can be further improved by limiting the size of the crowd. The theorem is named after French philosopher and mathematician Marquis de Condorcet who outlined it in his 1785 book Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions .

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