Visiting Kerala with a strategy in mind Premium

The BJP hopes the Prime Minister’s frequent visits will fetch it political dividends

The Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Guruvayur temple | Photo Credit: ANI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to Kerala and his engagement with Christian community leaders have activated political discussions about the Bharatiya Janata Party’s strategy to win seats in the Lok Sabha, from Kerala, where the party has not been successful so far.

Last week, Mr. Modi, went on a two-day visit to the State, led a lively roadshow in Kochi during the evening and visited the Sree Krishna temple at Guruvayur the following day. He attended the wedding ceremony of a daughter of actor-politician Suresh Gopi, a potential candidate of the BJP in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency. He also visited the Thriprayar Sree Ramaswami temple in Nattika, Thrissur. Later, he inaugurated projects worth ₹4,000 crore in Kochi, addressed a gathering of BJP booth-level leaders, and met several others before returning to Delhi.

His visit was the second time in a fortnight. Just two weeks earlier, he had led a huge roadshow and subsequently addressed the “Sthreesakthi Modikkoppam (Empower Women With Modi”) in Thrissur. Throughout his speech, he underscored the BJP government’s commitment to women’s empowerment at the national level and presented it as a tangible embodiment of “Modi’s guarantee”. Apparently, Mr. Modi strategically orchestrated his Kerala visits, transforming them into a prelude to the BJP’s Lok Sabha election campaign in the State. The party’s central leadership, fuelled by an intense desire to shatter the bipolar political paradigm in Kerala since it came to power at the Centre in 2014, now places its bet on Mr. Modi’s nationwide popularity. The leadership sees him as a potential game-changer capable of disrupting the jinx of the bipolar coalition system that has held sway in Kerala.

For many years, the Kerala BJP leadership has focused only on the Hindu electorate, amid facing allegations of transferring votes to the Congress party to oust the CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front whenever it was in power. Thus, the BJP vote share oscillated between 4%-8% in the past. But since 2014, the BJP’s vote share has been increasing in every other poll.

The strategy adopted

Political analysts say that Mr. Modi has combined a strategy of development, spirituality, and Hindutva to woo the electorate. His temple visits are carefully planned and executed without acting impulsively. He has realised the importance of temples and their influence on Hindu voters in Kerala after the Supreme Court judgment declared the custom of prohibiting women in their ‘menstruating years’ at Sabarimala unconstitutional.

Election fever has already gripped the Thrissur constituency after his visit. Besides, Mr. Modi’s visit to the Sree Ramaswami temple of Triprayar in Nattika, was a connect ahead of the Ram Mandir consecration in Ayodhya, but there could be more to it than meets the eye.

In Nattika, one of the seven Assembly segments in Thrissur, all three main candidates — sitting MP and Congress leader T.N. Prathapan, Rajaji Mathew Thomas of the CPI and Mr. Gopi as the BJP’s nominee — secured between 48,000 to 52,000 votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. Mr. Prathapan is from Nattika and had represented this segment twice.

This apart, Mr. Modi hosted over 100 Christian leaders from all denominations in Delhi on Christmas last year. The outreach programme was not new as Mr. Modi had met leading Church leaders during his visit to Kerala in April 2023.

During his recent visit, Mr. Modi also briefly met T.J. Joseph, the former professor of Newman College at Thodupuzha in Idukki district, whose hand was chopped off in 2010, by a group of activists from the now-banned Popular Front of India. Perhaps this was also intended to send a message to Christian voters.

Unlike before, meeting Mr. Modi is no longer taboo for anyone, as was evident when Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan received him and saw him off at the airport. Also, Church leaders have realised that Mr. Modi is likely to retain power in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. For the BJP, like another mainstream party in Kerala, the general election this year serve as a rehearsal for the 2026 Assembly elections. Undoubtedly, Mr. Modi, a two-term Prime Minister, exerts influence and is a factor in Kerala politics. But the real intrigue lies in whether he can choreograph a BJP victory that goes beyond mere participation and truly crosses the finish line.

biju.govind@thehindu.co.in