The results of the local elections held in Gujarat recently have shifted the focus to the Congress. Despite being out of power in the State for two decades, and not winning any Assembly election since 1985, the party still remains a force in Gujarat where the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is complete at all levels of electoral politics.
The Opposition party has won in 24 of the 31 district panchayats and 135 taluka panchayats, thus decimating the mighty BJP in two of the most important political regions, Saurashtra and North Gujarat.
In Saurashtra, the BJP could win in only one district panchayat out of 11, while in North Gujarat, it could not even bag one, even losing Mehsana, its bastion for decades and the home district of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his successor in the State, Anandiben Patel.
That the BJP would fare poorly in the rural areas was a foregone conclusion but the scale of the rout was something that party leaders could not have even dreamt about. However, what saved the day for the BJP was its performance in urban and semi-urban areas where it retained all the six municipal corporations — Ahmedabad, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Rajkot and Vadodara — while winning 40 of the 56 municipalities in semi-urban towns.
Factors against BJP
Several factors are being attributed to the BJP’s disastrous performance; from anti-incumbency against the State and the Central governments, the distress the farm sector is facing, after two successive poor monsoons, and, most importantly, the Patidar reservation issue that has not only affected the party but also raised serious questions about the famed “Gujarat Model of development”. Under this, the perception is that the massive push to industrialisation has failed to create jobs, forcing the most powerful community to seek quotas in universities and government jobs.
Anger among the farmers with the BJP is palpable in the villages because the Centre has not raised the minimum support price (MSP) for cotton. Gujarat is the largest producer. When he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr. Modi had demanded that the MSP for cotton be made Rs.1,500 for it to be remunerative for farmers, but now his government is not even providing as much as the United Progressive Alliance used to.
As the only Opposition party in the State, the Congress has gained because the electorate overwhelmingly voted against the BJP in villages. It may be noted that for the panchayat polls, the turnout was an impressive 67 per cent when compared to 47 per cent in the civic polls in the cities.
For the Congress, it may be tempting to claim that the party is on the path to revival and stands a chance now of wresting back control of the State in the next 24 months in the Assembly polls. Based on the results of the local polls, some leaders have even suggested that if these polls are held immediately, the Congress can win over 100 of the 182 State Assembly seats.
However, notwithstanding these optimistic calculations, the party is faced with the daunting task of defeating the BJP solely on the basis of a powerful presence in the rural areas.
Challenge of urban Gujarat
Gujarat is a rapidly urbanising State — 43 per cent of the population is urban, according to the 2011 census. And urban areas remain the party’s Achilles heel because it lacks these strengths: a leader who can connect with the masses in the urban areas and a credible organisational set-up which can compensate for a lack of leadership.
In the six main cities of the State, where civic polls were held recently, there are 41 Assembly seats. In the 2012 Assembly elections, the BJP won 37.
In Ahmedabad city, out of 16 Assembly seats, the Congress won only two: minority-dominated Dariapur and the SC reserved Danilimda, with a sizeable presence of the minority community. The Congress was expected to win in Jamalpur, another minority-dominated seat, but it went to the BJP because of infighting among minority leaders in the area. In Surat, of the 12 Assembly seats, the Congress had drawn a blank.
“[The] Congress cannot even fancy the idea of winning Assembly polls if it does not improve in urban areas, particularly in the six main cities of the State,” said a top party leader, insisting that it must at least bag a dozen seats from those 41 entirely urban constituencies if it wants to have a shot at winning the Assembly polls.
In all six municipal corporations, the Congress has improved its tally from what it was in 2010, but this is largely because of the Patidar effect. The Patels decided to teach the BJP a lesson for ignoring their demand for quotas, initially, and later suppressing the agitation with an excessive use of police force against the leaders spearheading the agitation.
For example, in the Surat municipal corporation, out of 116 seats, the Congress won 36, up from 14 in 2010. It won 22 seats this time in the Patel-dominated areas, which means that without the Patidar factor, the party’s tally would have more or less been the same.
“Yes, in [the] local polls, the Patidars have voted for us but there is no guarantee that they would do so in the Assembly polls as well,” the party leader quoted earlier said.
The Opposition party’s woes are not limited to only the urban centres. Its performance in the tribal areas of central and south Gujarat suggests that the tribal-dominated districts of Godhara, Dahod and Valsad, once Congress bastions, have been won by the BJP.
To make an impact in the cities, the Congress must begin to focus on the slums, minorities, Scheduled Castes (SC) and migrant-dominated areas because Gujarat attracts a chunk of migrant labourers.
The last Assembly election the Congress won was in 1985 when, led by Madhavsinh Solanki, the party created an unbeatable record of winning 149 of the 182 Assembly seats based on the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) factor, a powerful combination of numerically significant communities.
However, post-2002 Gujarat, polarisation along communal lines has become a norm. The BJP base, once limited to the upper castes like the Patels, Jains and Brahmins, now includes SCs, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes.
After three decades, Madhavsinh Solanki’s son, Bharatsinh, now leads the Congress in Gujarat. But it remains to be seen whether he will be able to cobble together a winning combination of communities, like his father once did, to return the Congress to power.
mahesh.langa@thehindu.co.in
