(This is the latest edition of the Political Line newsletter curated by Varghese K. George. The Political Line newsletter is India’s political landscape explained every week. You can subscribe here to get the newsletter in your inbox.)
Most commentators, including myself, had spoken about the inevitability of a BJP victory in 2024, two months ago. There is a revision in that view, generally speaking. To be sure, there is nothing that suggests a defeat of the BJP. But there is enough that suggests that the party is not on an upward trajectory. The primary source of this view is its campaign itself. The BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi appear to be explaining themselves in the last one week, on one single question, that it will not end caste reservation.
In the last edition of Political Line, I had discussed the debate on the Constitution, and how Mr. Modi responds to concerns among subaltern caste groups while ignoring the liberal concerns about liberty and individual rights. It pointed out that there are three strands to the debate on the Constitution.
This approach is on steroids in the week that followed. BJP’s ‘400 plus’ slogan had masked the underlying cracks in its key plank of Hindu consolidation that commentators were not sufficiently aware of. I wasn’t, for sure. As it turns out, the BJP has been acutely aware of this, and its triumphalism in the ‘400 plus’ slogan was an attempt to overcome these cracks. But the slogan has gained an autonomous life of its own, and now the BJP is trying to reclaim it. In fact, it is struggling to reclaim it.
The call for ‘400 plus’ is being interpreted by the subaltern caste groups as an attempt to undo caste-based reservations, while Hindutva groups are trying to present it as a march towards a ‘Hindu Rashtra’. The first one has caught the wider public imagination, and the numbers are with the OBCs, Dalits, and tribal communities. Mr. Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are reassuring in every meeting that caste quotas will continue. The fact that they have to explain it — and in fact, that is the most important point in all their speeches, is proof enough of the salience of the issue among the subaltern majority.
With the ‘400 plus’ slogan taking a different turn, the BJP is now downplaying it, though some leaders such as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath continue to emphasise it. The Hindu was the first to capture this shift in the ‘400 plus’ slogan.
After downplaying the slogan, Mr. Modi has repurposed it as a step to ensure that caste quotas are protected. In a subsequent speech, he said: “They ask me why 400 paar? I reply — because of your stratagems in the States. Daliton ke, Adivasiyon ke, OBCs ke aarakshan chori karne ka jo khel khel rahe ho. Use lootne ka khel khel rahe ho. Aapke ye khel band karne ke liye, hamesha ke liye band karne ke liye, aapke mansoobon ko hamesha hamesha taala lagaane ke liye Modi ko 400 paar chahiye (You are playing games to steal the reservation of Dalits, tribals, and OBCs. You are trying to loot them. To stop this game of yours for ever, and to put a lock on your intentions, Modi wants 400 plus).”
There’s also a campaign that the Congress is planning to deprive Hindu subalterns of reservation and give Muslims reservations.
So, that might lead us to the framing of Indian politics as Mandal vs Kamandal, i.e. caste vs religion. What will be the more influential determinant of 2024 — caste or religion? Over several years, I have tried to engage with this question of how caste and religion influence political behaviour of communities. During the 2014 Lok Sabha election, I argued that there were three factors that were diminishing the salience of caste and nudging the Hindi populations towards a Hindu consolidation. The debate on Muslim reservation during the Manmohan Singh regimes was one. You could read it here.
In another piece during the 2019 Lok Sabha election, I addressed the caste-communalism debate. You could read that one here.
On the one hand, the BJP is trying to defensively explain its ‘400 plus’ slogan, by searching for the optimal caste-religion mix, and on the other, it is trying to manage what could be called a ‘399 trap’. This is about the complacency of party workers. There is disquiet among party workers with regard to the selection of candidates, and influx of newcomers into the party. My colleague Nistula Hebbar discusses it here.
Even those who clearly want a third term for Mr. Modi might think losing their own individual constituency has no impact — ‘399 is good enough’.
Federalism Tract: Notes on Indian Diversity
United by backwardness, divided by faith
The question of reservations for subalterns among Muslims and Christians has remained contentious for decades. Members of both communities do get reservation in some States and in particular conditions. This piece offers a glimpse into some, not all aspects of the debate.
