Pre-monsoon showers have intensified across Kerala ahead of the onset of the southwest monsoon, which is likely to set in over Kerala by May-end.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is likely to advance to the south Andaman Sea, parts of the southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands around May 19.
The onset of monsoon over Kerala is expected on May 31, with a model error of ± 4 days.
Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation lies over the Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu, and a trough runs from the cyclonic circulation to Lakshadweep, triggering widespread rains across Kerala.
Urmi in Kozhikode received the highest rainfall of 100 mm in the last 24 hours, ending at 8.30 a.m. on May 16 (Thursday).
Orange alert
The weather agency has also issued an orange alert for several districts in Kerala from May 19, warning of very heavy rainfall.
Heavy rain in the range of 115.6 mm to 204.4 mm over 24 hours is forecast for Malappuram and Palakkad district on May 18.
Orange alert is issued for Palakkad, Alappuzha and Idukki districts on May 19, and seven districts from Thiruvananthapuram to Idukki on May 20.
A yellow alert warning of isolated heavy rain is issued for six districts — Pathanamthitta, Ernakulam, Idukki, Malappuram, Kozhikode, and Wayanad — on May 17 and nine districts on May 16.
Thunderstorms and gusts
Thunderstorms with lightning accompanied by gusty winds with speeds reaching 40-50 kmph is likely to occur in parts of Kerala till May 20, as per the IMD forecast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during this period as squally weather with wind speeds reaching 40 kmph to 45 kmph and gusting to 55 kmph is likely to prevail along and off south Kerala and the Lakshadweep area.
Hopeful of bountiful rain
With majority of the global weather models predicting good rainfall activity in June, Kerala is hopeful of a bountiful southwest monsoon this year (2024).
The emerging La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean coupled with the prediction of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral, turning above the positive IOD threshold (+0.40 °C) in the coming months bode well for a bountiful season this year.
