Even as Cyclone Michaung heads towards the south Andhra Pradesh coast, triggering torrential rain in Chennai and north Tamil Nadu, another system is brewing over the Arabian Sea according to the global models. The models by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) hint at the formation of a cyclonic system over the Arabian Sea soon after the dissipation of Cyclone Michaung.
However, a clear picture of the emerging system will be known only after the dissipation of the current one over the Bay of Bengal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) sources. The weather bulletin issued by the IMD on Monday said a cyclonic circulation lies over the southwest Arabian Sea, extending up to 3.1 km above mean sea level. The extended forecast issued by the IMD also forecast above normal rainfall in Kerala during the second week of December.
After Cyclone Mandous
Last year, the remnant of Cyclone Mandous formed over the Bay of Bengal later entered the east-central Arabian Sea as an upper air cyclonic circulation. Under its influence, a low pressure area (LPA) formed over the Arabian Sea off north Kerala-Karnataka coasts by the second week of December, which then intensified into a well-marked low pressure area and subsequently depression and deep depression before weakening over the Arabian Sea.
Rain across State
However, there was widespread rainfall across the State for two days under the influence of the system. The emerging system over the Arabian Sea is also likely to trigger some showers across the State before the northeast monsoon officially withdraws by the end of this month.