October 30 will see bypolls across 11 States for three Lok Sabha and 29 Assembly seats that will have implications for the politics of each of these States.
Haryana
Haryana, the State closest to Delhi, will see an Assembly bypoll in Ellenabad and is important for the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) led by former Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala after his release from jail after nearly a decade and the breaking away of his grandson, Dushyant Chautala, who floated a new outfit calling on the same support base as the INLD.
Abhay Chautala, son of Chautala senior, resigned from the seat in protest against the three contentious Central farm laws. Therefore, this is not just a turf war within the Chautala family for the Jat vote base. It’s also on just how much political hit the BJP has taken over the farm laws. The BJP has fielded controversial MLA Gopal Kanda’s brother Govind Kanda.
Bihar
Bihar is seeing bypolls to two Assembly seats. This follows the death of the Janata Dal (U) MLAs and is crucial for the NDA government’s stability, as the majority of the government rests on a slender margin with just four more than the required mark.
Allies Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress have each announced candidates for the seats after much verbal sparring between them. The RJD feels that the Congress’s low strike rate in the Assembly polls brought the alliance low, while the Congress thinks it needs to assert itself. The bypolls are, therefore, crucial for the ruling as well as the Opposition alliance.
Maharashtra
While the news from Maharashtra has been all about the cruise chip drug bust, a tough bypoll contest is on in Deglur in Nanded district. It was necessitated by the death of MLA Raosaheb Antapurkar, considered close to former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan. The Congress has fielded his son, Jitesh Antapurkar. The seat, a reserved one, was won by the Shiv Sena in 2014 and the Congress in 2019. The BJP has decided to challenge the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) dominance in the area by fielding former Shiv Sena man Subhash Sabne.
The implications of this contest for the personal career of Mr. Chavan are significant, but the question of whether or not the MVA as a grouping can have a complimentary electoral equation will be put to test.
Telangana
As the second wave of COVID-19 was barely on the wane earlier this year, the BJP managed to gain a big catch- former Health Minister in the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS)-led government Eatala Rajendra. This necessitated a bypoll in the Huzurabad seat. Mr. Rajendra is being fielded by the BJP and the TRS has put up Gellu Srinivas Yadav. The Congress has joined the battle by placing Venkat Balmoor as its candidate.
It is, however, at the basic level, a grudge match between the TRS and the BJP over Mr. Rajendra’s defection. Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhara Rao in fact launched the Dalit Bandhu scheme, with Huzurabad as the site of the pilot project for distribution of grants upto ₹ 10 lakh to Dalit entrepreneurs.
Assam and Karnataka
For Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, bypolls to five Asembly seats will be his first test after being sworn in to the top job. While two seats fell vacant due to the death of MLAs, the three vacancies arose due to the defection of two Congress and one All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) MLAs to the BJP. The BJP has fielded all the defectors in the three seats, with two seats given over to allies. If the BJP wins the three seats it is contesting, it will be two seats short of a full majority in the Assembly sans allies.
In Karnataka, bypolls to Sindagi and Hanagal will be a similar test for the newly-appointed Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, who replaced strongman B. S. Yediyurappa recently. But the test is also for the latter, as his son, B.Y. Vijayendra, is one of the party in charge of the Hanagal poll. The outcome of the bypoll will affect the chemistry of power in Bengaluru.
In all, it’s a crucial Saturday for political parties of all hues.
