The number of COVID-19 positive cases in Ernakulam could nearly triple from the present total count of 3,643 cases from March onwards to a maximum of 10,575 cases cumulatively a month from now, according to a projection made by the district surveillance unit for COVID-19.
The COVID-19 analysis report prepared by the surveillance unit with data till August 17 estimates that the cases could increase from the current 826 cases per week to an average of 1,575 to 1,725 cases per week in a month. Of these, the cases through contact and the number of healthcare workers turning positive per week are likely to double.
With 16 healthcare workers turning positive weekly now, by next month, a minimum of 31 and a maximum of 63 workers could test positive every week.
“Long working hours without a full PPE kit at non-COVID hospitals leave healthworkers exposed to patients who might be carrying the virus,” said Dr. Deepa K.H., district president, Kerala Government Medical Officers’ Association. To deal with the increase in patient load, effective utilisation of a decentralised system of testing and first-line treatment centres (FLTCs) at the panchayat level with the cooperation of the local bodies would be crucial, she added.
With a recovery rate of 64.10%, a total of 3,796 people are likely to be receiving treatment by around mid-September, a sharp increase from the current number of 1,572 people being treated in the district.
With most patients likely to be asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, the district’s telemedicine system will prove useful while monitoring infected people who are likely to remain in quarantine at home, Dr. Deepa said.
Going by the report, the district has recorded 27 deaths attributed to the disease so far, and the most number of deaths have been of people aged between 61 and 70 years of age. The maximum number of positive cases, however, is within a younger age bracket of 21 to 30 years.
Around 70% (2,567 people) of positive cases in the district so far have been through contact, while 728 travellers and 110 health workers have tested positive.
The source of infection in 238 persons is unknown. “This figure is of people with an unknown source of infection at the time of reporting the case. Later, the source in a few cases might have been traced,” a member of the surveillance unit said.
