China slipped into deflation as consumer prices contracted last month for the first time in more than two years, official data showed on August 9, as slowing domestic spending weighs on the country’s post-Covid economic recovery.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, fell 0.3 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said, having flatlined in June.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg had anticipated a 0.4% decline in the index for July.
It is the second round of disappointing data for the Chinese economy this week, after figures on August 8 showed the country suffered its biggest fall in exports for more than three years.
Deflation refers to falling prices of goods and services and is caused by a number of factors, including waning consumption.
And while cheaper goods may appear beneficial for purchasing power, deflation poses a threat to the broader economy.
As prices fall, consumers tend to postpone purchases in the hopes of further price cuts.
A lack of demand then forces companies to reduce production, freeze hiring or lay off workers, and agree to new discounts to sell off their stocks— weighing on profitability even as costs remain the same.
China experienced a short period of deflation at end of 2020 and early 2021, due largely to a collapse in the price of pork, the most widely consumed meat in the country.
Prior to that, the last deflationary period was in 2009.
Ongoing turmoil in real estate, a sector that has long accounted for a quarter of China’s GDP, is the “main source” for this “deflationary shock”, said economist Andrew Batson of Gavekal Dragonomics.
Deflation is also being driven by flagging exports— historically a key source of growth for the Chinese economy, Mr. Batson said.
The producer price index (PPI) fell for a 10th consecutive month, down 4.4% from a year earlier after a 5.4% drop the previous month. That compared with a forecast for a 4.1% fall.
The government has set a consumer inflation target of around 3% this year, which be up from 2% recorded in 2022.
