The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pulled off a major tactical victory in Andhra Pradesh as it welcomed back an estranged ally, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and a former Convenor of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in New Delhi and former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu. With a vote share of only 0.84% in the Assembly election in 2019, the BJP was all but written off in the State. It was perceived as the party that reneged on its promise to extend the Special Category Status (SCS) by another five years. While many viewed the TDP’s exit from the NDA just months ahead of the 2019 elections as too little too late, given the widespread discontent against the alliance for ‘betraying’ the State, the TDP managed to poll almost 40% of the votes, despite contesting on its own, but won only 23 of the 175 seats in the Assembly. While actor-turned politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP) garnered around 6%, winning one seat, the BJP, that contested on its own in 173 of the 175 seats, drew a blank. The five-cornered contest gave the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party, and its leader Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy an impressive 50% vote share and a brute majority of 151 seats in the Assembly.
While the exit of Y.S. Sharmila from the YSRCP — she is Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s younger sister — has given the Congress a lifeline in the State, and has become the Chief Minister’s Achilles heel, the TDP remains the main opposition. The pre-dawn arrest of Mr. Naidu by Andhra’s Crime Investigation Department on September 9, 2023, over corruption allegations in the Andhra Pradesh State Skill Development Corporation case has won the 73-year-old, three-time former Chief Minister considerable sympathy among the State’s people. It remains to be seen if the anti-Jagan votes will be split between the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the NDA, possibly delivering a win for YSRCP, or if there could be considerable shift in the incumbent’s vote base (minorities, Dalits and Backward Castes, who might view Ms. Sharmila as a bearer of the YSR legacy) and give the TDP the advantage in a three-cornered contest.